Fight: David Lemieux (38-3, 33 KOs) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs)
Location: Place Bell, Laval, Quebec, Canada
Date: December 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Lemieux -115, Saunders -105 (5 Dimes, 12/15/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lemieux: #3 ranked middleweight, Saunders: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Lemieux: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin
Why you should watch this fight
In a middleweight division loaded with talent, Billy Joe Saunders is an undefeated world title holder (WBO) who is arguably the third best middleweight on the planet behind boxing superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.
Saunders is a tough and very talented technician who has beaten everyone put in front of him, including highly regarded World Boxing Super Series super middleweight favorite and - at the time undefeated - Chris Eubank Jr. But Saunders will be fighting outside the the friendly confines of his home country (the United Kingdom) for the first time in his professional career Saturday night when he travels to Canada to face one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport in David Lemieux on Lemieux's home turf in Montreal. Lemieux is a highly aggressive, explosive puncher with power in both hands and an impressive 80.5% KO ratio over 41 professional fights; his only loss in the past seven years was to current Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1-ranked fighter Golovkin.
A win for Lemieux tomorrow night would be by far the most impressive of his career (would in fact be his first win vs. a top-level opponent) and would firmly establish him as one of the top four or five middleweights in the world. The winner of this fight is probably the most likely to face the winner of next May's Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch later in 2018 for a middleweight unification bout that could result in the first undisputed middleweight champion in boxing since Jermain Taylor in 2006.
With the exception of a few, fighters from the United Kingdom have typically not fared well in title fights overseas in hostile environments vs. world-class opposition. A win for Saunders tomorrow night vs. Lemieux would actually be one of the more impressive wins for a UK fighter outside the UK in recent years.
Prefight Analysis
As the odds suggest, Lemieux vs. Saunders is a true "50/50" fight that could go either way. Extremely difficult to predict the winner here.
What you have to like about Saunders is that he is likely the better pure boxer/technician in this matchup, with his high ring intelligence and superior boxing skills. Unlike Lemieux, Saunders has also never lost a fight in his professional career. Whenever Saunders has faced a tough, top-level opponent (vs. Eubank Jr., Andy Lee, or even his most recent fight vs. a solid Willie Monroe Jr. - all of whom are arguably on the same level as, if not even slightly better than Lemieux) he's emerged from the fight victorious. Lemieux, on the other hand, has never beaten a fighter near the caliber of Saunders and has actually already lost twice in his hometown of Montreal to fighters with less skill than Saunders. (Lemieux's first loss was to a fighter in Joachim Alcine who proceeded to lose his next five fights after beating Lemieux.)
Although Saunders doesn't have Lemieux's power, he strikes me as both mentally and physically tougher than Lemieux - a toughness I think that is the result of his blue collar, Gypsy upbringing where he'd been fighting in bare-knuckle competitions when he was only five years old. Saunders has a tight, effective defense (opponents land only 18% of total punches and 23.6% of power punches vs. Saunders) and has never been knocked out or knocked down in his professional career. (Lemieux, on the other hand, has been stopped twice.) I think Saunders' superior boxing skill (in particular his solid jab which I expect to be very effective in managing distance vs. Lemieux), as well as his oft-overlooked mental toughness and grit may be too much for Lemieux to over come - even in Montreal.
With all that said, I'm not at all comfortable betting on Saunders to win this fight - even at nearly even money odds - as Lemieux does have several advantages in this matchup. This fight is essentially in Lemieux's hometown (Laval, Quebec - a suburb of Montreal) and - although Saunders is technically the "A" side fighter in this matchup - Lemieux's promoter Golden Boy is the more high profile, lead promoter for Saturday night's boxing card. I strongly suspect the home crowd atmosphere combined with the backing of Golden Boy Promotions may create a scoring bias in favor of Lemieux - as it arguably did this past May for Golden Boy-backed Canelo in his controversial draw vs. Golovkin, a fight which many felt he clearly lost. Again, this will be the first time in Saunders' professional career that he's fought outside of the United Kingdom, so it's tough to predict how well he'll fare fighting in a hostile environment.
Although Saunders may have slightly faster hand speed, Lemieux is the superior athlete with much greater punching power. Saunders has never in his career faced a fighter with Lemieux's combination of power and punch volume and could end up getting overwhelmed by Lemieux's effective aggression - especially in the later rounds where Saunders is known to gas out on occasion. And though Lemieux has lost earlier in his career - as an inexperienced 22-year old - to lesser opponents than Saunders, he's gained experience and improved a bit since those losses; since losing two consecutive fights in 2011, Lemieux has lost only one other fight - to a fighter in Golovkin many consider the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the great middleweights of all time. Saunders, on the other hand, hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent fights, causing some to speculate whether he's already past his peak as a top-level fighter.
Lemieux vs. Saunders is a "toss-up" fight in the truest sense of the word. Despite Lemieux's power advantage inside the ring and advantage in some key intangibles outside of the ring (home crowd, high-profile promoter), I still slightly favor Saunders' superior boxing skills, defense, and mental toughness to prevail vs. Lemieux. Just not enough to bet on it.
I do, however, believe Saunders - with his slick defensive abilities and solid chin (a chin which has never hit the canvas in his professional career) - is highly likely to get through the full 12 rounds with Lemieux, win or lose. Note that 2 of Lemieux's last 3 fights within the past 14 months - both vs. lesser-skilled opponents than Saunders - went the full distance with Lemieux failing to score even one knockdown in either fight. Note also that Lemieux - who, like Saunders, has a history of stamina issues - has only one of his 33 TKO/KO victories past the 7th round; in other words, if Lemieux doesn't stop his opponent in the early or middle rounds, he's usually not stopping them late.
With Saunders not being much of a puncher himself (only two wins by TKO/KO in the past five years and a career TKO/KO% of only 48%), I think that the best value on this fight is to bet that the fight goes the full 12 rounds - a bet that is currently available at around -150 odds.
As far as the outcome, it's hard to predict even what kind of fight will break out Saturday night. A high-volume war likely favors Lemieux, while a slower-paced, more tactical fight likely favors Saunders. Bur either way it's an intriguing matchup and tough test that puts a lot at stake for both fighters.
Prediction: Saunders by decision
Recommended bet: Lemieux/Saunders goes full 12 rounds (.5 unit)
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