Canelo vs. Golovkin: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles (Canelo has opted not to accept the WBC belt if he wins so that title will become vacant if Canelo wins the fight.)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golvkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/16/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $3 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Golovkin: #2 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Thus far, 2017 has been an outstanding year for boxing featuring quite a few thrilling fights and long-awaited matchups between high-profile boxers. But tonight's fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin is probably the most long-awaited, highly anticipated matchup of them all. Tonight will be a matchup between two of the biggest names in boxing - both of whom are ranked in Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 and are arguably the two best middleweights in the sport.

With Floyd Mayweather's retirement, Canelo is unquestionably the top PPV attraction in boxing right now - he's a wildly popular boxer (particularly in his home country of Mexico, where he attracts Superbowl-like ratings every time he fights) in the prime of his career with elite skills to match his popularity. The only loss on Canelo's record is to undefeated pound-for-pound legend Mayweather, but Canelo seems to have noticeably improved after each fight since that loss with seven consecutive wins, six of which came against current or former world champions.

But, including the Mayweather fight, Canelo is now faced with what may be the toughest fight of his career in Golovkin. Gennady Golovkin, the #2 pound-for-pound ranked boxer in the world by Ring Magazine, is the undefeated WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and has won 33 out of his 37 professional fights - including 23 out of his last 24 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 89%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin looked vulnerable in his last fight - a closely-contested unanimous decision victory vs. Danny Jacobs last March (a fight which many felt he lost) - but Golovkin is still considered the most feared man in boxing. With the exception of his most recent fight vs. Jacobs, every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. Tonight will actually be Golovkin's first ever fight as a pro in Las Vegas.

On the heels of the much-hyped, entertaining, but (arguably) farcical Mayweather vs. McGregor boxing exhibition a few weeks ago, Canelo vs. Golovkin is what many would consider to be the real fight hardcore and casual boxing fans alike have been waiting for all year. Both Canelo and Golovkin are aggressive, stalking power punchers who prefer to fight from close range so this fight is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed, intense matchup that likely won't last the full 12 rounds.

The winner of this fight will have earned by far the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have legitimate claim to be considered the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. The winner of this fight will also be the holder of at least two major middleweight title belts (Canelo has refused to accept the WBC middleweight title if he wins on Saturday night due to the WBC essentially forcing him to vacate middleweight title last year after failed negotiations with Golovkin, the mandatory challenger for the WBC title at the time) which sets up a possible unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders.

Already noted as one of the better middleweights in boxing history, Golovkin could retire tomorrow and likely be a boxing Hall of Fame inductee. Canelo perhaps isn't quite Hall-of-Fame level yet but a win over Golovkin Saturday night would make him an instant Mexican boxing legend (if he isn't already) and secure his status as a future Hall of Famer.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Canelo comes into this fight as a slight (+140) underdog but - like Golovkin - is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound. Canelo is ranked the #8 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine and has been considered by the publication to be the true middleweight champion of the world since November 2015, when he beat Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision. Canelo doesn't currently hold any major world titles, but has previously held major titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion  as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before (voluntarily) vacating the titles.

Canelo is a patient, but accurate and highly efficient puncher who has developed into arguably the best aggressive counterpuncher in the sport. Canelo is a technically savvy, A-level boxer with very good to great power in both hands. He throws multi-punch combinations as well as anyone in the sport (especially in terms of variation combined with power, accuracy, and deceptive hand speed) and is an excellent, committed body puncher. (Canelo's best punches are his left hook to the body and right uppercut, which have resulted in multiple TKO/KO victories in his most recent fights.)

Canelo is considered by most observers (including myself) to be the better pure boxer in this matchup. He is the higher IQ boxer, has advantages in hand and foot speed, and is the fighter more adept at making adjustments over the course of the fight. Canelo has only fought above 155 lbs twice in his career but has bulked up (in terms of muscle mass) significantly and will likely come into this fight with a size advantage vs. Golovkin, who has fought his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs.

In previous fights, Canelo has primarily had issues with slick fighters who move well and box mostly from distance (see his loss to Mayweather and his close, competitive fights vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout). He certainly won't be up against this style of opponent on Saturday; a stalking pressure fighter who will be right in front of him the entire night. Canelo has superior inside fighting skills to Golovkin, and - in multiple recent fights - has shown that he is highly adept at counter punching effectively under pressure from close range with accurate, clean power punches. One should not be at all surprised if Canelo, unlike any previous Golovkin opponent, is able to outbox Golovkin on the inside with his back against the ropes - especially given that Golovkin's come-forward, pressuring style does provide ample clean counter punching opportunities.  I expect Canelo's superior hand speed and accurate power to be effective in spots here - even against a fighter with a seemingly impenetrable chin in Golovkin.

Although no defensive wizard, Canelo is also perhaps the more defensively skilled fighter compared to Golovkin. Canelo's upper body defensive movement in particular has noticeably improved in recent years, which should serve him well defending from close range vs. Golovkin. Canelo has also shown a solid chin over the course of his career; he's never been stopped or even knocked down in any of his fights as a pro. While not bad defensively, Golovkin's defense often times is mostly his offense; in executing his pressure attack he at times gets careless in terms of leaving his hands down and leaving himself open to clean counter punching after throwing punches. Canelo almost certainly will have some success exploiting Golovkin's defensive flaws.

Canelo is still a relatively young fighter still in the prime of his career and has shown noticeable improvement in most of his fights since his first Las Vegas fight several years ago vs. Miguel Cotto's brother Jose Cotto (a fight where he was badly hurt in the 1st round). By contrast, Golovkin is 35 years old (over 8 years older than Canelo), is past his prime, and arguably showed signs of regression in his most recent fight last March vs. Jacobs - his first fight in 24 fights (spanning the course of nearly a decade) where he failed to win by stoppage. (The Jacobs fight was also a fight many felt Golovkin lost outright.)

Despite his youth, Canelo has - at just 27 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) In terms of elite opponents, Canelo's experience is decisively superior to that of Golovkin, who has fought tougher, pound-for-pound level opponents in his most recent fights vs. Jacobs and (an undersized) Kell Brook, but prior to that had fought at best fringe world champions that no one would've even considered ranking in the top 50 pound-for-pound.

Saturday's fight, the most anticipated matchup of the year between two championship-level boxers, will take place on Mexican Independence Day weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a largely Mexican-American and Mexican crowd that will be overwhelmingly pro-Canelo - which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being close and competitive it's more likely than not (based on previous history) that the fight will be scored in favor of Canelo. (Though low volume at times, Canelo does have a fan-friendly style complete with accurate and very clean power punching that judges often tend to favor.)

Canelo is a highly determined, poised fighter who has always been very mature for his age. He and his trainers (trainers who have made training Canelo their primary focus since he turned pro at 15 years old) will certainly be extremely well prepared for Saturday's fight, win or lose. Canelo comes across as a fighter who, aside from for his family, fights primarily for his legacy and comes across as a man who just wants (to win) this more than Golovkin. In Golovkin's last fight, Jacobs also struck me as the fighter who was more determined and wanted it more - which I think is a large part of the reason that fight was close and competitive. Canelo - a more efficient and accurate puncher than Jacobs (and arguably a better overall boxer - maybe the best boxer Golovkin has faced in his career) - just may have better results given his seemingly similar advantage in determination.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Gennady Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #2 boxer in the world (behind only fellow undefeated boxer Andre Ward). Golovkin is undefeated at 37-0 and, with 33 KOs in 37 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (89%) in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over seven years and has won 23 out of his last 24 fights by TKO/KO. Golovkin is one of the better middleweight boxers in the history of the division, having successfully defended his middleweight title(s) 18 consecutive times - two wins shy of tying Bernard Hopkins' record of 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses. While Golovkin has spent his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs, Canelo is fighting only the second fight of his career above 155 lbs.

Golovkin's experience extends back to his highly impressive amateur career, which includes a reported 345-5 record and a silver medal at the middleweight division in the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Greece.

Golovkin is the most feared boxer in the sport (and has been among the most avoided boxers for a large portion of his career) for good reasons. He's an outstanding pressure fighter with excellent punching power in both hands - power generated in large part from the balance he maintains at seemingly all times (hence his 89% TKO/KO rate). Golovkin's arguably historically great power is complimented by technical savvy and underrated boxing skills - he is far from just a great power puncher. Golovkin is very accurate with superb timing on his punches and has one of the better jabs in the sport - a punch which was highly effective in his TKO two years ago vs. David Lemieux and will likely be a key weapon in his arsenal tonight vs. Canelo. (Like Wladimir Klitschko, Golovkin's jab essentially works as another power punch, with which he is also able to effectively control distance.)   

Golovkin's immense power combined with his ability to cutoff the ring effectively are perhaps the biggest detriments to Canelo's chances of winning this fight. Unlike Jacobs, who was able to have success vs. Golovkin largely due to effective foot movement and the ability to box while backing up, Canelo is relatively flat-footed and likely will not be able to evade Golovkin's pressure. Canelo is adept at avoiding punches from close distance with savvy upper body movement and a tight guard but - due to his lack of consistent foot movement - he will be within range of Golovkin's power punching for significant stretches of the fight; it's highly unlikely he will be able to elude Golovkin's accurate (and often overwhelming) power punches for a full 12 rounds. Golovkin will land clean power punches... the key question here is how well Canelo - who has never fought anyone possessing anything close to Golovkin's punching power before - takes those punches while executing his own counterpunching attack. While Canelo may come in to the fight a bit bigger than Golovkin in terms of weight, Golovkin is physically stronger and (perhaps by a much wider margin than people think) has the superior punching power. Canelo's defense is above average and has improved greatly over the course of his career, but he is limited (especially in terms of speed and his lack of foot movement) and almost certainly will (eventually) get caught with flush punching from Golovkin.

Canelo is an aggressive counterpuncher but Golovkin is - both by nature and by design - the more aggressive, relentless fighter; it is highly likely that he will both thrown and land more punches that the relatively patient, low-output Canelo. Canelo is further hampered in this regard with his noted stamina issues; he is notorious for often taking stretches of rounds off  (e.g., retreating to the corner of the ring, decreasing his punch output) to preserve energy. This is something he was able to get away with vs. smaller fighters with less punching power but likely won't be able to at middleweight vs. a stalking pressure fighter like Golovkin who perhaps has the most effective punching power in the sport. Note that even a smaller Floyd Mayweather - notorious for his cautious, defensive style and known to have hand issues that mitigate his punching power - was able to be the aggressor and effectively walk Canelo down in numerous spots during their fight; Golovkin is not as skilled as Mayweather but it's difficult to imagine a substantially bigger, more aggressive fighter with superior punching power like Golovkin being less successful in pressuring Canelo than Mayweather.  

On the opposite side of the attack, Golovkin has faced - and beaten - bigger fighters and better punchers than Canelo; both Lemieux and Jacobs have greater punching power than Canelo at middleweight and Golovkin appeared to handle their power with ease. In addition to his incredible offensive attack, Golovkin has arguably the best chin in boxing - having never been stopped or even knocked down once in over 385(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Despite winning every round convincingly, Canelo did not come close to stopping the larger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; it's tough to imagine he'll come close to stopping a fighter in Golovkin who will likely display superior defense and perform much more effectively overall than Chavez did. 

There are doubts about how good Canelo really is - do his skills really match his hype and popularity? Canelo arguably lost highly competitive decision victories vs. Lara (one judge scored the fight for Lara), Austin Trout, and even Cotto - where many (including myself) felt the scorecards should've been much closer. There is a feeling by many that Canelo is overrated and that he isn't even the best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career; when Jacobs fought Golovkin last March he (like Canelo) was also a one-loss fighter who perhaps matches up better with Golovkin than Canelo ever could due to his superior punching power, naturally bigger body frame, and ability to box effectively on his feet. Jacobs is an underrated boxer whose skills arguably match - and overall perhaps are even superior - to those of Canelo.

Canelo is a highly talented boxer with the power and counter punching skills to be highly effective vs. Golovkin but moving up - not only in weight from the 147-155 lb fighters he's used to fighting - but in levels from Chavez in his last fight to one of the best middleweight fighters of this generation in Golovkin may be a case of Canelo biting off more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I do think Canelo is a live underdog in this fight, to the extent that I'd actually consider grading him as a favorite if I knew with certainty that he'd be able to handle Golovkin's power at least as well as Jacobs did last March. Canelo, who is in the prime of his career and seems to have improved with each fight, is the younger, better skilled boxer and has the elite counter punching ability inside to potentially outbox a pressuring Golovkin from close distance. Golovkin has proven that he has a fantastic chin, but he is relatively untested to the body; if Canelo can have success landing body shots inside that may be effective in mitigating Golovkin's attack. Canelo is the more accurate puncher with quicker hands than Golovkin; I fully expect that he will be able to compete in stretches with Golovkin in the early rounds, particularly on the inside. If Canelo - who has never been stopped or knocked down in a fight - can withstand Golovkin's pressure and last the full twelve rounds, history indicates that he could very well be given the benefit of the doubt on the judges' scorecards... especially given his judge-friendly, clean-punching style and the overwhelming crowd support he'll receive at T-Mobile Arena, which may also influence the judges.

With that said, I think there is a mismatch in effective power here that I think will be too much for Canelo to overcome. Canelo's chin has been solid at lower weights but Golovkin is by far the best power puncher Canelo has faced in his career, which I think will be more than enough to overcome Canelo's advantage in skill.

Canelo may be a better pure boxer than Golovkin, but so were Golovkin's last two opponents (Jacobs and Kell Brook last September). Like Canelo, Brook was a pound-for-pound ranked, big fighter for his weight division with elite skills who moved up in weight to challenge for Golovkin's middleweight titles. Brook - who I believe is a better boxer than Canelo - arguably outboxed Golovkin in the early rounds but got overwhelmed by Golovkin's power, forcing his corner to stop the fight in the 5th round.

As mentioned previously Golovkin struggled for portions of his fight vs. Jacobs but Jacobs, in my opinion, is a very underrated boxer who had the size, foot speed, and power as a true middleweight
to give Golovkin problems. Jacobs was also able to confuse Golovkin by giving him different looks (i.e., switching from orthodox to southpaw stance and vice-versa) at times during the fight. Unlike Jacobs, Canelo doesn't have the speed to elude Golovkin's pressure for twelve rounds and I doubt he has the power at middleweight (that he had at light middleweight and welterweight) to pose a real threat to a fighter in Golovkin who is arguably the best middleweight of this generation.

I also expect Canelo's noted issues with stamina to be a severe detriment vs. a stalking, pressure fighter like Golovkin; Canelo won't have the opportunities tonight that he's had in lower weight classes or vs. less-skilled opponents to conserve energy by taking breaks during rounds. Canelo's recent gain in muscle mass may also negatively affect his stamina, not to mention lessen the solid hand speed he's displayed at lower weights.

Given the power discrepancy in this matchup, along with Canelo's flat-footed boxing style and questionable stamina, I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO. If Canelo can't escape Golovkin's range and is unable to withstand his power, he doesn't stand much of a chance over the course of twelve rounds. However, the value (at -150) is so solid on Golovkin simply to win the fight (I'd personally grade this matchup at minimum -400 in favor of Golovkin) that I recommend placing the majority of the bet on this fight on Golovkin to win, with a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (which can currently be found as high as +160).

Canelo has been the beneficiary of generous scoring in his previous fights that have lasted twelve rounds, but note that these were generally fights where he was mostly the aggressor (most notably his controversial wins vs. Lara, Trout, and his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw). I see Golovkin's power largely dominating this fight and can't see Canelo being the aggressor for much of this fight even if he lasts the full twelve rounds.

I see Golovkin's power vs. Canelo's largely flat-footed style possibly being a bigger mismatch than what people are expecting (to the extent that this *could* end up being a very easy fight for Golovkin). But, in terms of high-profile, elite talent still at the peaks of their career, this is one of the better matchups we've seen in a long, long time so let's hope the fight lives up to the hype!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin to win (2 units) 
2) Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)

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