Fight: Gervonta Davis (17-0, 16 KOs) vs. Liam Walsh (21-0, 14 KOs)
Location: Copper Box Arena, London, England
Date: May 20, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World super featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Davis -360, Walsh +300 (5 Dimes, 5/20/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #6 ranked super featherweight, Walsh: Not ranked
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Walsh: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Alexander
Why you should watch this fight
To gauge whether Gervonta "Tank" Davis - one of the most hyped prospects in boxing and by far the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted - is the real deal and can continue what appears to be a clear path towards future superstardom. In his last fight, Davis greatly exceeded expectations with an impressive 7th round TKO victory vs. then undefeated Jose Pedraza to win the IBF super featherweight title. In stopping Pedraza, Davis - who'd just turned 22 years old two months prior - beat a tough, skilled boxer who'd not only never lost before but had never even been knocked down in his professional career.
In tonight's fight, Davis travels to the United Kingdom to fight another solid, experienced, undefeated opponent in Liam Walsh who, at 31 years old, is seeking his first major world title. Like Pedraza, Walsh is a versatile fighter who can box from either stance (orthodox or southpaw) and is adept at adjusting his fighting style/tactical approach based on his opponent. Walsh has better power (has won 67% of his fights by TKO or KO), quicker hands, and moves much better on his feet than Pedraza; in many ways Walsh will be a much tougher challenge than Pedraza, especially considering that this fight is taking place overseas in Walsh's home country of England.
Is Gervonta Davis a star in the making with the goods to contend with the likes of fellow super featherweight titlists Jezreel Corrales, Miguel Berchelt, and pound-for-pound star Vasyl Lomachenko? His performance tonight vs. an undefeated, potentially tricky opponent in Walsh in what is anticipated to be a very hostile environment in the UK will go a long way towards answering that question.
If Davis wins this fight, he will be the first boxer from Baltimore to successfully defend a world title in over 20 years (since Vincent Pettway in April of 1995) and one of only a handful of Baltimore-raised boxers to defend a title since the days of Joe Gans(!) in the early 20th century.
Prefight Analysis
I fully expect Davis to win this fight. Davis has already decisively beaten - and stopped - a a very good fighter in Pedraza who has a better chin and is arguably more skilled than Walsh so there's not much reason to think Gervonta isn't capable of pulling off a similar performance in tonight's fight. Walsh is solid and may actually be the more skilled, higher IQ fighter in this matchup, but Davis has excellent hand speed and elite power in both hands that will be extremely difficult for Walsh to elude for a full 12 rounds; I'd expect that Davis will eventually find and impose his will on Walsh given his clear advantages in overall athleticism, power, and speed.
Davis does lack experience at the top level of professional boxing (Walsh does as well) but it's worth noting that in his first major title fight vs. Pedraza this past January, he exhibited an unusual amount of self-confidence and lack of intimidation in picking apart an experienced, undefeated world champion in his prime. I'd anticipate Gervonta's confidence to carry over and only be greater in tonight's fight, despite having to face another solid, unbeaten fighter in what may end up being a very hostile environment overseas; Davis seems to lack the "scare" that afflicts many young, inexperienced fighters.
Walsh is in his prime, has a bit more experience than Davis against solid competition, and may actually be the better-skilled fighter overall but he's limited in terms of athleticism and is far from what would be considered "elite." Davis - based on what I've seen in his recent fights (most notably the Pedraza fight), has a special combination (arguably reminiscent of Mike Tyson) of sense of invincibility, power, hand speed, and toughness which IMO makes a stoppage victory over the British fighter the most likely outcome of this matchup.
But with that said I actually think most of the value in this fight lies with betting on Walsh to win (which can currently be found at odds as high as +350). A critical mistake Pedraza made in his fight this past January with Davis was standing in front of Gervonta for much of the fight and challenging him on the inside - which made him all the more susceptible to Gervonta's massive power. Walsh - who boxes very well off his feet - will almost certainly take a different approach and use his superior foot speed, along with his reach advantage, to outbox Davis (who is a bit flat-footed and, similar to an Adrien Broner, often relies on planting his feet from a stationary position to generate punching power) from distance. Walsh is an elusive fighter (perhaps more so than anyone Davis has faced in his professional career) with a solid defense so may be able to confound the relatively young and inexperienced Davis for large stretches of tonight's fight.
Walsh is not (and will never be) a top pound-for-pound fighter, but he is one of the very best fighters in the United Kingdom. He's crafty and probably has a better overall skill set than Davis; as the fight progresses into later rounds I'd trust his ability to make adjustments much more than Gervonta's.
Walsh also has very good (and deceptive) power; his 67% TKO/KO ratio is the highest KO% of any fighter Davis has fought in his career so Walsh may actually be the biggest puncher Davis has faced thus far in his professional career.
A last point to consider is that if this fight goes to the scorecards you have to figure - fair or not - that there is a good chance that the scoring will be biased towards Walsh in a country somewhat notorious for scoring in favor of the home country fighter when facing a fighter from overseas. So a close fight either way can perhaps be expected to be awarded to the home fighter (Walsh).
All things considered, I grade Walsh as having a decent 35-40% chance to win this fight, which makes betting on Walsh to win at the current +300 (and higher) odds a very solid value bet. As shown in his last fight vs. Pedraza, Davis is a young, energetic fighter with excellent stamina and a seemingly sturdy chin so I don't see him getting stopped (despite Walsh's very respectable power). So I like placing at least a portion of the bet for this fight on Walsh to win specifically by decision (which you can currently find at as high as +500).
So while I see Davis as the probable winner of this fight, I'm going to go with the value here in Walsh. Walsh has too many favorable qualities in this matchup (experience, skill, good power, ring IQ, foot movement, home crowd advantage) not to consider him as at least a live underdog. I understand that Mayweather is trying to build his brand globally (and in the United Kingdom in particular) but he *may* have bitten off more than he can chew and taken too much risk here taking a young, unseasoned kid like Davis overseas to fight a hungry, undefeated top contender like Walsh. We'll see...
Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO
Recommended bets: 1) Walsh to win (.25 unit) 2) Walsh by decision (.25 unit)
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