Pedraza vs. Davis: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Jose Pedraza (22-0, 12 KOs) vs. Gervonta Davis (16-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Pedraza -115, Davis -105 (5 Dimes, 1/14/17)
Purse: Pedraza: $225,000, Davis: $75,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pedraza: #6-ranked super featherweight; Davis: Not ranked
Style: Pedraza: Orthodox, Davis: Southpaw
Referee: Ricky Gonzalez

Why you should watch this fight

Gervonta Davis is one of the most hyped prospects in boxing - and the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted. Davis is an electric, crowd-pleasing fighter who many say resembles a smaller version of Mike Tyson with his combination of blazing hand speed and vicious KO power in both hands. (Davis has won all 16 of the fights in his professional career by TKO/KO with the exception of one fight where the opponent barely got through the full 6 rounds after being knocked down twice.)

But the undefeated Davis has been relatively untested in his career thus far and is taking a *huge* step up in levels to fight a more experienced, also undefeated world champion in the prime of his career in Jose Pedraza. The intrigue in this fight will be to see whether Davis's skills and talent match his hype and if he can overcome his relative lack of experience to become - at only 22 years old - the first world champion from Baltimore since Hasim Rahman in 2001 (who became world champion after a stunning 5th round KO upset victory as a 20-1 underdog over Lennox Lewis).

Why Jose Pedraza will win

At 22-0, Jose Pedraza is undefeated and the current IBF super featherweight champion. At 27 years old, Pedraza is also in the prime of his career making his third title defense vs. an inexperienced 22-year old kid who has never fought in a title fight before. Pedraza doesn’t have Gervonta’s speed or power but he is the decidedly more skilled and experienced fighter in this matchup. Pedraza has fought (and beaten) tough, top 20 competition within the super featherweight division like Stephen Smith and Edner Cherry in his two most recent fights, as well as a now highly thought of contender in Tevin Farmer who – like Gervonta – was an inexperienced prospect at the time he fought Pedraza. (Pedraza beat Farmer by late round TKO.) By comparison, Gervonta has yet to even fight a top 100 fighter within his division. Davis’s toughest opponent was arguably Cristobal Cruz, a 39-year old fighter who won the IBF featherweight title in 2008 but has lost 9 of his last 12 fights since 2010. (Davis beat Cruz by 3^rd round TKO in October 2015.)

A native Puerto Rican, Pedraza represented Puerto Rico in the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and has much more international experience than Davis - which suggests he’s been exposed to and can adjust accordingly to a larger variety of boxing styles.

Pedraza isn’t an undefeated world champion for no reason. He has very quick hands and is a crafty puncher who attacks both the body and head very well with punches often thrown from unorthodox angles. Pedraza moves his feet well and has a 1.5” reach advantage vs. Davis, which he will likely use to try and keep Davis out of punching range. Pedraza is a versatile fighter who – like James DeGale in tonight’s main event – is virtually ambidextrous and can fight from either a southpaw or orthodox stance.

A big concern with Gervonta may be his focus and how much the fame, money, and attention he’s garnered in the process of quickly becoming Floyd’s most hyped prospect to date in his promotional career has gotten to his head. A little over a year after signing with Floyd, Davis – who has yet to accomplish anything of note in his professional career - already has his own website, official fan club, and frequently flaunts his cash and jewelry on social media. There has also been some reported friction between Davis and Mayweather centered around Davis’s reluctance (despite Floyd’s insistence) to move to Las Vegas and train there full time.  Davis on multiple occasions has expressed frustration with Mayweather on social media as the friction between the two apparently led to Mayweather holding Davis inactive in what currently has been the longest layoff of Davis’s professional career (7 months). 

Another point about Davis is that – unlike Floyd and the vast majority of top-level boxers in the sport – Davis (by his own admission on Twitter last year) “doesn’t watch boxing.” Davis is obviously very talented, but you have to question how far a fighter can make it at the world-class level without being a student of the game.

Pedraza is without question the best fighter Davis has fought in his career; he has the skills, experience, and savvy to decisively outbox Davis in every round, if not stop him late. Davis expends a lot of energy in early rounds trying to score knockdowns; in his professional career he’s never gone past 9 rounds. Davis is primarily a head hunter who doesn’t look to wear his opponents down with body shots (and Pedraza is likely fully aware of this). If Pedraza can get past the early rounds you have to (perhaps strongly) favor Pedraza’s versatile and more proven boxing skills.  

Why Gervonta Davis will win

A little over a year now since first signing with Mayweather Promotions, it didn’t take long for Davis to become Mayweather’s most hyped and featured young prospect. 22-year old Gervonta Davis is undefeated (16-0), having beaten all of his opponents with the exception of one by TKO or KO. (As noted earlier that one opponent who lasted did get knocked down twice by Davis in a 6 round fight.) Davis is a highly aggressive, fast-attacking fighter with a somewhat rare combination of impressive power in both hands and very good hand speed (as noted above there is a resemblance to a young Mike Tyson in this regard). Gervonta’s best punch is probably his left uppercut – the punch he’s had by far the most success scoring knockdowns with. Good practice or not, Gervonta generally doesn’t waste a lot of time employing a jab or setting his opponent up with feeler shots; most of Gervonta’s punches are heavy-handed power punches capable of sending his opponent to the canvas. While Gervonta likes to attack fast he has also shown on numerous occasions a patient aggressiveness, willing to wait for spots that minimize his exposure to counters (which is a promising quality for any young prospect whose  game is based largely on aggressiveness and punching power).

Davis has clear advantages in raw athleticism, speed, and power in this matchup – advantages which could overwhelm even someone of Pedraza’s skill and experience. Pedraza is prone to dropping his hands during exchanges and has never in his professional career faced an opponent with Gervonta’s power; don’t be too surprised if this matchup ends up being quick and easy work for the young challenger.

Davis is an ambitious, highly determined fighter seeking to become the first world champion in boxing from Baltimore since 2001 (Hasim Rahman). NYC has a strong (and loud) Puerto Rican fan base who will show up to support Pedraza (who is from Puerto Rico and is the only current world champion from the island) but Davis should hold his own in terms of crowd support with the droves of fans, friends, and family from nearby Baltimore expected to come up to NYC to support the hometown star’s attempt to bring a world title back to the city.

Davis lacks experience against top competition in his professional career but does have a solid amateur pedigree. Davis was the 2012 National Golden Gloves champion at 132 lb., won three consecutive National Silver Gloves championships from 2006-2008, and has won a few other notable national titles in his amateur career.

Gervonta opened as a 3-2 betting underdog to win this fight but the betting line has moved so much in his favor within recent weeks that he is now nearly even money odds (as low as -105 at some books) to win the fight, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of the betting public’s money has been placed on Davis to win. Honestly, it’s not often that you see a betting line move that much in favor of a boxer this close to the fight date and that boxer doesn’t end up winning the fight.

Davis is the more athletic, speedier boxer with knockout power behind seemingly every punch while Pedraza – though a very solid boxer who’s undefeated and considered one of the best in the world at super featherweight – is far from an elite technician and is considered vulnerable in this matchup even by many of those picking him to win. Over the course of 12 rounds, Davis could potentially only need to land one really good punch to change the course of the fight and get the stoppage; it may just be a matter of whether Davis can catch up to Pedraza within 12 rounds – the disparity in athleticism and speed between the two fighters suggests that Davis probably could.

Prefight Analysis

Gervonta Davis is a very talented fighter with impressive speed and power and is capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during this title fight. But I think the disparity in skill and experience (in particular the experience gap) between Pedraza and Davis far outweighs the athletic and physical advantages Davis has over Pedraza and will result in a clear victory for the champion Pedraza.

As a Baltimore native I am rooting for Gervonta but strongly feel he might be in over his head taking a title fight this early in his career against a legitimate top 5 super featherweight in the world given that he's yet to even face a top 100 fighter in his division and had not yet in his career been put up against a fighter who was thought to be any kind of threat to his perfect record going into the fight. Given Gervonta's lack of experience I think it's borderline irresponsible for Mayweather (and Gervonta's manager Al Haymon) to put him against this level of competition at this point in his career; even amongst the most talented of prospects its extremely rare to increase the level of opposition for a prospect this significantly without gradually building up the prospect first.

After only eight professional fights, fellow super featherweight Vasyl Lomachenko is already considered by some to be the best fighter pound-for-pound in the sport and is well on his way to a hall-of-fame career. But even Lomachenko lost the 2nd fight of his career - a world title fight vs. veteran Orlando Salido - due in large part to lack of experience and being put in tough too early in his career; I see the same happening to Davis in tonight's fight.

While not as quick or athletic as Davis, Pedraza has good quickness and athleticism in his own right and is skilled enough to outbox Davis from range and outpoint him decisively, if not stop him outright if the disparity in skill is greater than expected. I strongly favor Pedraza's skill and experience in this fight and think Davis's only chance will be to overwhelm the at times defensively irresponsible Pedraza early with power and catch him with a good power punch to earn the stoppage.
With this said, Davis's power is very real and he's capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during the fight; if the odds for Gervonta by stoppage are good enough I'd strongly consider hedging a bet of Pedraza to win with a wager on Gervonta to win by TKO/KO. (I personally have not made this hedge as I don't feel the odds are sufficient enough.)

Prediction: Pedraza to win

Recommended bet: 1) Pedraza to win (1.5 units)

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