Santa Cruz vs. Frampton II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) vs. Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 28, 2017
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz +160, Frampton -170 (5 Dimes, 1/28/17)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $900,000, Frampton: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #4 ranked featherweight, Frampton: #10 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Frampton: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This is a very highly anticipated rematch of what was universally considered one of the top two or three fights of 2016 - a fight in which undefeated and recently-crowned 2016 Ring Magazine, ESPN, and Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) fighter of the year Carl Frampton outpointed 3-1 favorite Leo Santa Cruz in a closely-contested, majority decision thriller. The win earned Frampton the previously undefeated Santa Cruz's WBA featherweight title (after Frampton had unified the WBA and IBF super bantamweight titles earlier in the year in a split decision victory vs. then undefeated Scott Quigg) and made him the first foreign-born fighter in 13 attempts to win a world title vs. an American-born fighter on U.S. soil.

Like their previous fight, this fight should be another classic matchup of quantity vs. quality between two top-rated boxers in their prime - the at times electric, punch-per-second Santa Cruz vs. the better-skilled, more accurate punching Frampton.

Punch for punch, Santa Cruz may be the most exciting fighter in the sport (CompuBox statistics consistently rate him among the top one or two fighters in the sport in terms of both punches thrown and punches landed), but he lost a very close majority decision in front of what was a decidedly pro-Frampton crowd at Barclays Center in New York City. The rematch will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada - a location only a few hours from Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles where Santa Cruz's Mexican-American and Mexican fans are expected to have a much stronger presence.

 Will the slicker, craftier Frampton outbox Santa Cruz again to retain his featherweight title (and retain his status as possibly the top featherweight in the world) or will Santa Cruz's punch output in front of what should be more home-friendly confines in Las Vegas carry the day in his attempt to avenge the first loss of his career?

Why Leo Santa Cruz will win

Despite getting outboxed in their first fight last July, Santa Cruz is only a little worse than a 3-2 underdog in this rematch vs. Frampton. The first fight was very close, despite the massive Irish and Irish-American pro-Frampton contingent that appeared to dominate the Madison Square Garden crowd. (I was in attendance for the fight and scored it a 114-114 draw, while one of the three judges also scored the fight a draw.)

In Las Vegas - only a four hour drive from his hometown of Los Angeles - Santa Cruz should expect much more friendly crowd support from his Mexican and Mexican-American fanbase, especially given that Santa Cruz is arguably the most popular and high profile active boxer from nearby Los Angeles. The change in venue from a pro-Frampton arena to likely a pro-Santa Cruz one has a good chance of energizing Santa Cruz's efforts inside the ring and possibly influencing the judges' scoring outside the ring in favor of Santa Cruz. (I do feel the first fight was closer than the 117-111 and 116-112 scores that two of the three judges provided and - from being at the fight and experiencing the energy of the crowd in person - feel that the judges could've been affected in part by the raucous crowd support Frampton enjoyed at Madison Square Garden.)

Santa Cruz is a come-forward pressure fighter who suffered the first loss of his professional career in last July's fight vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz typically wins by overwhelming his opponents with an accumulation of  of punches (often throwing over 100 punches a round) thrown from a wide array of angles.

Per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz threw exactly 50% more punches than Frampton in their first fight - throwing more punches than Frampton in each round - and landing more punches overall. Despite this, Santa Cruz lost a close decision, largely because in trying to initially be patient and box Frampton his punch output in the first five rounds of the fight was nearly 40% less (67.8 punches thrown per round) than it was over the last seven rounds of the fight (94.7 punches thrown per round). Given Santa Cruz's notoriously excellent stamina and Frampton's tendency to fade a bit in later rounds, it was not surprising to see Santa Cruz increase his punch activity in the middle and later rounds of the fight and win most of the late rounds vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz has a much better idea of what to expect in this fight so if he is less cautious and can pick up his punch activity early he stands a good chance of winning some of the early rounds he lost in the last fight - especially in front of what should be a much friendlier crowd in Vegas.

Santa Cruz is the naturally bigger fighter with a 7" reach advantage. Though Frampton generally landed the more accurate, cleaner power punches in their last fight the punches - with the exception of a couple in the early rounds - didn't seem to affect the bigger Santa Cruz too much. Santa Cruz has only been knocked down once in his professional career and was seemingly never in danger of being knocked down or stopped in last year's fight vs. Frampton. If Santa Cruz can use his reach advantage and keep his punch activity high in the face of Frampton's superior power and counter punching abilities I see him both outthrowing and outlanding Frampton by a larger margin than he did in the last fight, which in my opinion would likely lead to a decision victory for Santa Cruz even if Frampton is more accurate and lands most of the cleaner shots as he did in the last fight.

Santa Cruz dealt with a significant life distraction in his last fight vs. Frampton as his father Jose Santa Cruz - who has also been his lead trainer for his entire professional career - was suffering from and being treated for stage 3 bone cancer during prefight preparations. This distraction no doubt led to stress and lack of focus in preparing for the first fight. (Even Frampton admitted that Santa Cruz's father's cancer diagnosis likely affected Santa Cruz's mindset going into the last fight.) With Santa Cruz's father's cancer now in remission and with Santa Cruz's father fully dedicated to training duties (Santa Cruz's older brother Antonio assumed most of the lead trainer duties while his father underwent cancer treatment), one should expect a more focused and energized Santa Cruz in the rematch.

Why Carl Frampton will win

Why could Carl Frampton beat Santa Cruz? Well he is still undefeated and just beat Santa Cruz in his last fight this past July. In that fight, Frampton did outbox Santa Cruz and showed he was the more skilled, accurate, crafty boxer with faster hand speed and - despite being the smaller fighter - arguably better punching power. (He certainly hurt Santa Cruz more than Santa Cruz hurt him in the first fight.)

Despite Santa Cruz throwing 50% more punches, Frampton landed almost as many punches (242 for Frampton vs. 255 for Santa Cruz) and landed at a much higher percentage than Santa Cruz (36.2% of punches landed for Frampton vs. only 25.4% of punches landed for Santa Cruz) while landing the cleaner, more powerful punches in the process. Frampton not only landed at a higher percentage than Santa Cruz overall, he landed at a higher percentage in each of the 12 rounds of the fight. So despite the fact that the last fight was (correctly) considered close and competitive, it was arguably a dominant performance by Frampton over Santa Cruz in terms of pure boxing ability given the disparity in percentage and quality of punches landed. There's little reason to believe the technically superior Frampton won't again use his very good timing and accuracy to exploit Santa Cruz's often over-aggressive and sometimes sloppy pressure style with well-timed jabs and power punching as he did in the last fight.

Frampton appears to be the more intelligent, versatile boxer so appears to be the boxer who is more likely to make the proper adjustments from the previous fight. (Technically superior boxers generally fare better vs. less skilled fighters in rematches.) Frampton boxes much better on the move than Santa Cruz which - combined with his solid, stiff jab - should allow him to control distance vs. Santa Cruz despite Santa Cruz's 7" reach advantage.

Frampton's first fight vs. Santa Cruz took place in New York City in front of a pro-Frampton crowd littered with Irish and Irish-American supporters. Tonight's fight will be in Las Vegas - closer to Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles - so Frampton likely won't enjoy the raucous support he enjoyed in New York City. But boxing fans from the United Kingdom are known for traveling extremely well; there will for sure be a huge, enthusiastic contingent of Irish traveling from overseas for the fight so while Santa Cruz will probably enjoy at least a slight advantage in crowd support, significant - and possibly louder - portions of the crowd will be pulling for Frampton. (So the Las Vegas location may not being as home-friendly for Santa Cruz as it may seem from the surface.)

Frampton is the more skilled boxer (arguably more skilled by a wide margin judging from the last fight) with advantages in accuracy, power, and speed and just beat Santa Cruz in their first fight only a few months ago; it will be difficuly for Santa Cruz to overcome all of these advantages to pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

I give Frampton a slight 55/45 edge in this rematch and think he *probably* beats Santa Cruz again. Despite the fact that I actually scored their first fight a draw, I thought Frampton clearly showed he was the better fighter by landing punches at a significantly higher percentage (including landing at a higher percentage in every single round of the fight) and landing the vast majority of the cleaner, more powerful punches. The fact that Frampton landed almost as many punches as Santa Cruz was impressive given that Santa Cruz threw 50% more punches in the fight. Frampton was the more accurate, crafty fighter; his slick foot movement and counterpunching skills were generally very effective vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume, hyper-aggressive punch output.

As the superior boxer, one would expect Frampton to do more of the same in tonight's fight. Frampton is a naturally reactive boxer who reads his opponents very well - after having already fought (and outboxed) Santa Cruz previously one would expect he'd be the fighter more apt to make the necessary adjustments to beat Santa Cruz even more decisively in a rematch.

Style-wise, I think Frampton holds so many advantages over Santa Cruz (skill, speed, accuracy, boxing IQ, power) that you have to grade him as at least a slight favorite to win the rematch.

But in terms of betting on the fight I actually feel the most value here is in betting on Santa Cruz to win by decision (currently at approximately 2.8-1 odds). The 2.8-1 odds on Santa Cruz to win by decision is theoretically a profitable bet if you think Santa Cruz wins by decision at least 26.5% of the time; I grade Santa Cruz's chances of winning by decision at closer to 40-45%, making this bet - at least in my estimation - a very solid value bet.

Despite Frampton mostly outboxing Santa Cruz in their first fight in landing the cleaner punches at a higher percentage, Santa Cruz did decisively outwork Frampton with his punch output - throwing more punches than Frampton in every round - and came on the latter part of the fight to win most of the late rounds. Despite Frampton's impressive boxing display vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume effort, the first fight was still a very close and competitive fight to the point where one of the judges scored the fight a draw. (I was at the fight and also scored the fight a draw and would even have been okay with a close decision to Santa Cruz given his success outworking and landing clean punches on Frampton in the later rounds.) If Santa Cruz gets off to a better start in the early rounds of tonight's fight (which I think stands a pretty good chance of happening - Santa Cruz can afford to risk being less cautious early as the smaller Frampton did not show a consistent ability to hurt him), I think the conditions of the fight are set up well for Santa Cruz to continue on and pull off the upset.

While Frampton will have his share of loud and enthusiastic fans in Las Vegas, the pro-Frampton crowd support for this fight - which I believe played at least a small role in how the fight was scored by a couple of the judges - won't be near what it was in New York City for the first fight.  And in tonight's fight, I see Santa Cruz being more focused and energized than in the last fight given that his father - who was undergoing cancer treatment during preparations for the last fight - is healthy again and has resumed full lead trainer duties for this fight.

While I think Frampton probably wins this fight - given the conditions of the near-west coast location (which should favor Santa Cruz), a likely more prepared and energized Santa Cruz, and Santa Cruz's ability to outwork and outpunch his opponent even when getting outboxed, Santa Cruz by decision at 2.8-1 odds appears to be the best bet in terms of value.

Either way let's hope this fight is at least half as entertaining as the last one!

Prediction: Frampton to win

Recommended bet: Santa Cruz by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Pedraza vs. Davis: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Jose Pedraza (22-0, 12 KOs) vs. Gervonta Davis (16-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Pedraza -115, Davis -105 (5 Dimes, 1/14/17)
Purse: Pedraza: $225,000, Davis: $75,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pedraza: #6-ranked super featherweight; Davis: Not ranked
Style: Pedraza: Orthodox, Davis: Southpaw
Referee: Ricky Gonzalez

Why you should watch this fight

Gervonta Davis is one of the most hyped prospects in boxing - and the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted. Davis is an electric, crowd-pleasing fighter who many say resembles a smaller version of Mike Tyson with his combination of blazing hand speed and vicious KO power in both hands. (Davis has won all 16 of the fights in his professional career by TKO/KO with the exception of one fight where the opponent barely got through the full 6 rounds after being knocked down twice.)

But the undefeated Davis has been relatively untested in his career thus far and is taking a *huge* step up in levels to fight a more experienced, also undefeated world champion in the prime of his career in Jose Pedraza. The intrigue in this fight will be to see whether Davis's skills and talent match his hype and if he can overcome his relative lack of experience to become - at only 22 years old - the first world champion from Baltimore since Hasim Rahman in 2001 (who became world champion after a stunning 5th round KO upset victory as a 20-1 underdog over Lennox Lewis).

Why Jose Pedraza will win

At 22-0, Jose Pedraza is undefeated and the current IBF super featherweight champion. At 27 years old, Pedraza is also in the prime of his career making his third title defense vs. an inexperienced 22-year old kid who has never fought in a title fight before. Pedraza doesn’t have Gervonta’s speed or power but he is the decidedly more skilled and experienced fighter in this matchup. Pedraza has fought (and beaten) tough, top 20 competition within the super featherweight division like Stephen Smith and Edner Cherry in his two most recent fights, as well as a now highly thought of contender in Tevin Farmer who – like Gervonta – was an inexperienced prospect at the time he fought Pedraza. (Pedraza beat Farmer by late round TKO.) By comparison, Gervonta has yet to even fight a top 100 fighter within his division. Davis’s toughest opponent was arguably Cristobal Cruz, a 39-year old fighter who won the IBF featherweight title in 2008 but has lost 9 of his last 12 fights since 2010. (Davis beat Cruz by 3^rd round TKO in October 2015.)

A native Puerto Rican, Pedraza represented Puerto Rico in the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and has much more international experience than Davis - which suggests he’s been exposed to and can adjust accordingly to a larger variety of boxing styles.

Pedraza isn’t an undefeated world champion for no reason. He has very quick hands and is a crafty puncher who attacks both the body and head very well with punches often thrown from unorthodox angles. Pedraza moves his feet well and has a 1.5” reach advantage vs. Davis, which he will likely use to try and keep Davis out of punching range. Pedraza is a versatile fighter who – like James DeGale in tonight’s main event – is virtually ambidextrous and can fight from either a southpaw or orthodox stance.

A big concern with Gervonta may be his focus and how much the fame, money, and attention he’s garnered in the process of quickly becoming Floyd’s most hyped prospect to date in his promotional career has gotten to his head. A little over a year after signing with Floyd, Davis – who has yet to accomplish anything of note in his professional career - already has his own website, official fan club, and frequently flaunts his cash and jewelry on social media. There has also been some reported friction between Davis and Mayweather centered around Davis’s reluctance (despite Floyd’s insistence) to move to Las Vegas and train there full time.  Davis on multiple occasions has expressed frustration with Mayweather on social media as the friction between the two apparently led to Mayweather holding Davis inactive in what currently has been the longest layoff of Davis’s professional career (7 months). 

Another point about Davis is that – unlike Floyd and the vast majority of top-level boxers in the sport – Davis (by his own admission on Twitter last year) “doesn’t watch boxing.” Davis is obviously very talented, but you have to question how far a fighter can make it at the world-class level without being a student of the game.

Pedraza is without question the best fighter Davis has fought in his career; he has the skills, experience, and savvy to decisively outbox Davis in every round, if not stop him late. Davis expends a lot of energy in early rounds trying to score knockdowns; in his professional career he’s never gone past 9 rounds. Davis is primarily a head hunter who doesn’t look to wear his opponents down with body shots (and Pedraza is likely fully aware of this). If Pedraza can get past the early rounds you have to (perhaps strongly) favor Pedraza’s versatile and more proven boxing skills.  

Why Gervonta Davis will win

A little over a year now since first signing with Mayweather Promotions, it didn’t take long for Davis to become Mayweather’s most hyped and featured young prospect. 22-year old Gervonta Davis is undefeated (16-0), having beaten all of his opponents with the exception of one by TKO or KO. (As noted earlier that one opponent who lasted did get knocked down twice by Davis in a 6 round fight.) Davis is a highly aggressive, fast-attacking fighter with a somewhat rare combination of impressive power in both hands and very good hand speed (as noted above there is a resemblance to a young Mike Tyson in this regard). Gervonta’s best punch is probably his left uppercut – the punch he’s had by far the most success scoring knockdowns with. Good practice or not, Gervonta generally doesn’t waste a lot of time employing a jab or setting his opponent up with feeler shots; most of Gervonta’s punches are heavy-handed power punches capable of sending his opponent to the canvas. While Gervonta likes to attack fast he has also shown on numerous occasions a patient aggressiveness, willing to wait for spots that minimize his exposure to counters (which is a promising quality for any young prospect whose  game is based largely on aggressiveness and punching power).

Davis has clear advantages in raw athleticism, speed, and power in this matchup – advantages which could overwhelm even someone of Pedraza’s skill and experience. Pedraza is prone to dropping his hands during exchanges and has never in his professional career faced an opponent with Gervonta’s power; don’t be too surprised if this matchup ends up being quick and easy work for the young challenger.

Davis is an ambitious, highly determined fighter seeking to become the first world champion in boxing from Baltimore since 2001 (Hasim Rahman). NYC has a strong (and loud) Puerto Rican fan base who will show up to support Pedraza (who is from Puerto Rico and is the only current world champion from the island) but Davis should hold his own in terms of crowd support with the droves of fans, friends, and family from nearby Baltimore expected to come up to NYC to support the hometown star’s attempt to bring a world title back to the city.

Davis lacks experience against top competition in his professional career but does have a solid amateur pedigree. Davis was the 2012 National Golden Gloves champion at 132 lb., won three consecutive National Silver Gloves championships from 2006-2008, and has won a few other notable national titles in his amateur career.

Gervonta opened as a 3-2 betting underdog to win this fight but the betting line has moved so much in his favor within recent weeks that he is now nearly even money odds (as low as -105 at some books) to win the fight, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of the betting public’s money has been placed on Davis to win. Honestly, it’s not often that you see a betting line move that much in favor of a boxer this close to the fight date and that boxer doesn’t end up winning the fight.

Davis is the more athletic, speedier boxer with knockout power behind seemingly every punch while Pedraza – though a very solid boxer who’s undefeated and considered one of the best in the world at super featherweight – is far from an elite technician and is considered vulnerable in this matchup even by many of those picking him to win. Over the course of 12 rounds, Davis could potentially only need to land one really good punch to change the course of the fight and get the stoppage; it may just be a matter of whether Davis can catch up to Pedraza within 12 rounds – the disparity in athleticism and speed between the two fighters suggests that Davis probably could.

Prefight Analysis

Gervonta Davis is a very talented fighter with impressive speed and power and is capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during this title fight. But I think the disparity in skill and experience (in particular the experience gap) between Pedraza and Davis far outweighs the athletic and physical advantages Davis has over Pedraza and will result in a clear victory for the champion Pedraza.

As a Baltimore native I am rooting for Gervonta but strongly feel he might be in over his head taking a title fight this early in his career against a legitimate top 5 super featherweight in the world given that he's yet to even face a top 100 fighter in his division and had not yet in his career been put up against a fighter who was thought to be any kind of threat to his perfect record going into the fight. Given Gervonta's lack of experience I think it's borderline irresponsible for Mayweather (and Gervonta's manager Al Haymon) to put him against this level of competition at this point in his career; even amongst the most talented of prospects its extremely rare to increase the level of opposition for a prospect this significantly without gradually building up the prospect first.

After only eight professional fights, fellow super featherweight Vasyl Lomachenko is already considered by some to be the best fighter pound-for-pound in the sport and is well on his way to a hall-of-fame career. But even Lomachenko lost the 2nd fight of his career - a world title fight vs. veteran Orlando Salido - due in large part to lack of experience and being put in tough too early in his career; I see the same happening to Davis in tonight's fight.

While not as quick or athletic as Davis, Pedraza has good quickness and athleticism in his own right and is skilled enough to outbox Davis from range and outpoint him decisively, if not stop him outright if the disparity in skill is greater than expected. I strongly favor Pedraza's skill and experience in this fight and think Davis's only chance will be to overwhelm the at times defensively irresponsible Pedraza early with power and catch him with a good power punch to earn the stoppage.
With this said, Davis's power is very real and he's capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during the fight; if the odds for Gervonta by stoppage are good enough I'd strongly consider hedging a bet of Pedraza to win with a wager on Gervonta to win by TKO/KO. (I personally have not made this hedge as I don't feel the odds are sufficient enough.)

Prediction: Pedraza to win

Recommended bet: 1) Pedraza to win (1.5 units)

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DeGale vs. Jack: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: James DeGale (23-1, 14 KOs) vs. Badou Jack (20-1-2, 12 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and  IBF Super Middleweight titles
TV: Showtime
Line: DeGale -242, Jack +247 (5 Dimes, 1/12/17)
Purse: DeGale: $750,000, Jack: $700,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: DeGale: #1-ranked super middleweight; Jack: #2-ranked super middleweight
Style: DeGale: Southpaw, Jack: Orthodox
Referee: Arthur Mercante Jr.

Why you should watch this fight

This is a unification title fight between two current world champions in James DeGale and Badou Jack whom most would consider, at this moment, the top two super middleweight boxers in the world. The winner of this fight will be the unified WBC and IBF super middleweight champion and be considered the top boxer in the world at 168 lbs. 

DeGale vs. Jack is the first major boxing card of 2017 and - outside of Floyd Mayweather's own fights - is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has ever done the lead promotion on.

Whoever wins this fight will have earned the biggest win of his professional career. If the favored DeGale - a British former Olympic gold medalist - wins this fight, it will strengthen his claim as one of the elite, top 10 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport that many consider him to be.

Why James DeGale will win

DeGale is the current IBF super middleweight champion of the world and is widely considered to be one of the top 10-15 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

DeGale had a distinguished amateur boxing career, winning the Olympic gold medal as a middleweight at the 2008 Beijing Olympics for the United Kingdom. As a pro, he's suffered only one loss - a highly controversial majority decision loss to the then undefeated George Groves. (A slight majority to this day feel DeGale won that fight.)

DeGale is a solid (-242) favorite coming into this fight for numerous reasons. Although not a name known to most casual boxing fans, DeGale is widely considered by boxing purists to be one of the more skilled boxers in the sport given his high boxing IQ and versatile fighting style. DeGale's ability to throw punches from unorthodox angles combined with very good hand speed and accuracy makes it very difficult for opponents to anticipate and cleanly block his punches. DeGale's almost ambidextrous ability to switch between southpaw and orthodox stances - even whilst in the middle of throwing combinations - makes it doubly difficult for opponents to prepare for and defend against his attack.

DeGale is also considered by many to be one of the best  (some might even say the best) inside fighters  in the sport with his instinctive ability to both land and defend against punches inside. DeGale, who has a career KO percentage of 58%, is not known as a big puncher but is adept at wearing his opponents down over several rounds with clean, tough-to-anticipate power punches.

I would anticipate DeGale having success landing vs. the slower, somewhat predictable Jack - a come-forward, pressure fighter who will be right in front of DeGale for most of the fight. Like Terence Crawford, DeGale has the ability to fight from either stance and (as many elite fighters are) is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies over the course of a fight. DeGale can fight coming forward but, with his excellent footwork, is as good or better as a counter puncher fighting off his back foot - a style he will likely have to employ for large stretches of the fight vs. the pressure style of Jack. On his best nights DeGale is a master technician and is more mobile, quicker, and has a more varied set of skills than Jack; if he is on his game one would expect DeGale to outbox Jack both from distance and from the inside.

Although he has seemingly chosen to stand in and exchange more in recent fights, DeGale can be very elusive defensively with his movement and has never been knocked down (or even been in danger of being knocked down for that matter) or stopped as a pro. Jack is aggressive and a highly effective body puncher, but doesn't appear to have the knockout power or speed to pose as a serious knockout threat for DeGale.

DeGale is from the United Kingdom (London) but has not fought in the UK in over two years. (Saturday's fight vs. Jack will be DeGale's fourth consecutive fight outside the UK.) DeGale won, then defended his super middleweight title twice outside of the UK - establishing a reputation as a road warrior who thrives fighting away from home. DeGale didn't look particularly impressive in his last fight, a highly competitive unanimous decision victory vs. an opponent in Rogelio Medina who wasn't expected to be a serious threat - but it seemed DeGale overlooked Medina in anticipation of the already informally-agreed to fight vs. Jack (DeGale admitted as much in post-fight interviews). I would expect DeGale to be much more prepared, train harder, and look significantly sharper for what would be the biggest win of his professional career.

 DeGale has a somewhat flashy, crowd-pleasing fight style that's a bit easier to score points for than the boringly basic, predictable style of Jack. (While unfair, Jack's inability to make an impression on the judges with his effective, yet basic boxing is probably at least part of the reason his last fight with Lucian Bute was scored a draw despite most feeling he won the fight decisively.) In the event of a close fight, I wouldn't be surprised if DeGale's flashier style and more engaging ring presence carries more favor with the judges in terms of scoring the closer rounds.

If DeGale is on his game and fully prepared for this fight it's tough to envision any outcome other than a clear victory for the British boxer, whether by a comfortable decision or by stoppage. DeGale is elite in terms of his talent and overall skills, and is the quicker, faster, seemingly more intelligent boxer; one would expect these advantages to manifest themselves into a likely win for DeGale during Saturday's fight.

Why Badou Jack will win

Like DeGale, Jack is a current (WBC) super middleweight champion who has defended his title twice over the past year. Also like DeGale, Jack has just one loss on his record - a first round TKO loss nearly three years ago to journeyman Derek Edwards - though this loss appears to have been somewhat of a fluke (i.e., the result of a lucky punch landed by Edwards) given Jack's strong performances since then.

Jack seems to be fighting with a high level of confidence in what have been the best performances of his career in some of his recent fights. As a 4-1 underdog in April 2015, Jack won the WBC super middleweight championship with a solid majority decision victory over the then undefeated Anthony Dirrell. A few months later he put up another surprisingly impressive performance as a 3-2 underdog in a split decision victory vs. George Groves, a talented fighter who handed DeGale his only loss as a professional. And in Jack's most recent fight last April, he outboxed former longtime super middleweight champion Lucian Bute in a fight that was very controversially scored a majority draw. (The overwhelming majority of those who watched this fight felt Jack clearly won; it's also worth noting Bute tested positive for a banned substance shortly after the fight.) Jack has proven himself to be a hardworking overachiever in these recent fights; it would not at all be surprising if he outperforms expectations again on Saturday night - especially against an at-times lazy fighter in DeGale who is notorious for taking stretches of fights off (possibly due to issues with stamina).

Jack is a solid, well-rounded (think "jack of all trades, master of none") pressure fighter with decent power and above average mobility. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks - which could be effective vs. DeGale in spots as DeGale has (perhaps by choice) not been as elusive in recent fights as he had earlier in his career, seemingly choosing at times to trade punches with his opponents from close range and against the ropes. DeGale also has a bad habit of keeping his hands down which may provide Jack with more opportunity for clean counters.

Jack's best asset may be his body punching, which was particularly effective in his two most recent fights vs. Bute and Groves. A durable fighter, Jack is certainly capable of wearing DeGale down with body punches in the middle to late rounds, where DeGale is more prone to getting outworked given his tendency to decrease his punch output during stretches of the latter stages of fights. One should not be surprised if the typically pressuring Jack outworks DeGale late in the championship rounds of this fight.

DeGale's performances in his last two fights since winning the IBF super middleweight title can best be described as mediocre; if DeGale is as lackluster in Saturday's fight vs. Jack as he was vs. Medina and Bute, I'd grade this matchup as at worst a 50/50 fight in favor of the underdog Jack.

While his connection to Mayweather didn't help him in his controversial draw this past April with Bute, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he is being promoted by Floyd's Mayweather Promotions firm in what is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has served as lead promoter for (other than Floyd Mayweather's own fights of course). This unification title fight is the biggest non-Mayweather fight Floyd has ever promoted and Jack is arguably the best fighter in Mayweather's camp; it would not be unreasonable to think that a close fight *could* get judged with bias in favor of Mayweather's fighter over the fighter from the United Kingdom.

DeGale is widely considered an elite, A-level talent but he's been inconsistent in recent fights and has a habit of fighting down to the level of his opponent. Jack is probably not quite as talented or skilled as DeGale but he is a world-class, top 2 super middleweight fighter in his own right and has arguably performed better than DeGale in recent fights, showing better stamina and putting forth a more consistent effort vs. comparable competition to what DeGale has faced in recent years. If DeGale does not improve from how he's performed over the past couple of fights, one should expect this to be a close, competitive fight in which Jack could very easily pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

It wouldn't be completely surprising if Jack wins this fight. He's a well-rounded, top-level fighter who's boxed well in recent fights. Since his career-hindering TKO loss to Edwards nearly three years ago he's bounced back  with impressive performances as an underdog to win a major world title and earn consideration as possibly the best super middleweight in the world. DeGale on the other hand, has looked shaky at times in his recent fights with Medina and Bute and appears more likely than Jack to perform below expectations.

The fact is Jack is an underrated, hardworking fighter who absolutely is capable of outworking and wearing down DeGale, who has a reputation for getting lazy during the middle and late rounds of fights. Jack is a very effective body puncher and DeGale - as he's done in recent fights - may elect to  stand within punching range and exchange with Jack, which could be to his detriment as the fight gets into the later rounds. At nearly 3.5-1 odds, there may be some value in taking Jack to win by 12 round decision.

But as solid as Jack is I do feel at the end of the day that DeGale - when on his game - is a level above Jack in terms of talent and overall skill and that this disparity will end up being the difference in the fight. DeGale's ability to switch stances and give different looks combined with his unorthodox punching style, hand speed advantage, and ability to box on the move will result in DeGale having consistent success landing clean power punches compared to Jack's straightforward, somewhat predictable approach which DeGale will likely have an easier time defending against.

I do feel DeGale has competed down to the level of his opponents in some of his recent fights but will rise to the occasion to perform well in a unification title fight that would be the biggest win of his career.

In terms of what the fight judges will see on the surface, DeGale has a flashier, more crowd-pleasing style and is much more adept at playing to the crowd than the mild-mannered, no frills Jack. (In a fight with a clash of styles such as these this could end up being a deciding factor.)

DeGale is one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport and is a hall-of-fame caliber talent; I expect his special talent to be on full display Saturday night at Barclays Center en route to a competitive but clear decision, if not a late stoppage.

Prediction: DeGale to win

Recommended bet: 1) DeGale to win (1 unit)

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