Cotto vs. Canelo: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 21, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title (if Alvarez wins; Cotto was stripped of title prior to fight)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +275, Alvarez -305 (5 Dimes, 11/21/15)
Purse: Cotto: $15 million, Alvarez: $5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Canelo: #1 ranked junior middleweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Canelo: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Canelo opened in late July as a -245 favorite shortly before the fight was officially announced, with Cotto as a slight +175 underdog. Public betting trended for the next couple of months after that in favor of the younger, bigger Canelo, who peaked as a -350 favorite in early October. Over the past few weeks approaching the fight however, it appears the underdog odds have enticed bettors to wager mostly on the still dangerously powerful Cotto, who has won his last three fights by easy TKO/KO victory since hiring Freddie Roach as trainer; Canelo is currently a -305 favorite, with Cotto as a +275 underdog.

Why Miguel Cotto will win

Despite being 35 years old (10 years older than Canelo), Cotto has looked over the past two years as impressive as he's ever looked in his career - winning his last three fights by wide TKO victories (and arguably not losing a single round in any of those three fights). Since hiring 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach as his trainer, Cotto has clearly regained confidence in his abilities as a top-level boxer and is fighting with a renewed energy.    

Cotto is generally considered the better overall boxer in this matchup, coming into this fight vs. Canelo with advantages in boxing IQ, skill, and speed. Cotto has superior foot movement to the relatively flat-footed Canelo and, especially given his effective use of movement in recent fights under Freddie Roach, is perhaps in a better position to control the tempo of this fight.

As shown in his recent fights, Cotto still has very good power in both hands... power comparable to that of Canelo despite Canelo being 10 years his junior. Cotto's left hook is his signature punch (Cotto's left hook is in fact widely considered one of the best punches in the sport) and he's also a devastating body puncher who throws combinations well. Cotto is a naturally more aggressive fighter than the typically patient, relatively low-output Canelo so do not be surprised if Cotto outworks Canelo in the initial rounds and takes some of the steam out of Canelo's power with early body shots.

Overall Cotto is still one of the best offensive fighters in boxing, having won 33 of his 44 pro fights by TKO/KO - a higher career TKO/KO percentage (75%) than other notable recent power punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Carl Froch, and Canelo himself. Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career but Cotto's brother Jose Miguel almost knocked Canelo out in the first round of their May 2010 fight. Cotto's last six wins have been by TKO/KO.

Cotto's power and advantage in foot speed could pose a problem for a fighter in Canelo who does not move well and deliberately paces himself during fights to conserve energy.

Cotto has the clear advantage in terms of experience. Despite being only 25, Canelo has solid experience but Cotto is perhaps the most experienced active fighter in boxing, having fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez, as well as former world champions Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), Ricardo Mayorga, Joshua Clottey, and Daniel Geale. Last year Cotto upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had only lost one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Three years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave  recently retired pound-for-pound king Mayweather one of the toughest fights in his career.

At the end of the day, Cotto is one of the best boxers of this generation while Canelo is still to an extent young and unproven. Cotto is a future first ballot hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, junior middleweight, and middleweight).

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are solid reasons why Canelo is entering this fight as roughly a -300 favorite.

At only 25 years old, Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; a technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands.

Canelo is a patient, thinking boxer who statistically is one of the top 2-3 efficient boxers in the sport. He's an accurate puncher who lands a very high percentage of power punches and overall punches thrown (to the point where he at one time was ranked #1 by CompuBox in terms of percentage of power punches landed). Canelo is a splendid combination puncher who, while often low-output, tends to land punches cleanly and with power (which often makes an impression on judges in close rounds).

Canelo is a full decade younger than Cotto and is in the prime of his career. Canelo is naturally bigger and stronger than Cotto (likely the strongest fighter Cotto has ever fought in terms of pure physical strength) and has a 3.5" reach advantage on Cotto. (Canelo is generally expected to give up the reach advantage so he can pressure the smaller Cotto inside but the reach should help him neutralize Cotto's speed advantage when he boxes from range.)

Canelo is not the most mobile fighter (actually is relatively flat-footed) but he did have success in spots cutting off the ring vs. highly skilled light middleweight champion Erislandy Lara (who has much better foot movement than Cotto)... so one would expect Canelo would have at least as much success cutting off the ring vs. Cotto, who will not be as elusive as Lara and who has a history of stamina issues in the late rounds.

Although Cotto is the more experienced fighter, the 25-year old Canelo has already amassed a ton of experience, having fought Floyd Mayweather, former lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), future first ballot hall-of-famer Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, and Kermit Cintron.

Due to expected strong Mexican/Mexican-American fan attendance, the crowd at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could have some influence on both the boxers inside the ring and the judging outside the ring. Scoring in close Canelo fights has tended to favor Canelo; even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw. If the fight is close and goes 12 rounds I strongly expect Canelo to be granted the decision.

Canelo is no defensive wizard and - as a pressure fighter with slow foot movement - is certainly susceptible to counterpunching. But Canelo's chin has held up against bigger and stronger fighters than Cotto (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career) and his defense - in particular his upper body defensive movement - has noticeably improved in recent fights.

Cotto has looked extremely impressive in recent fights but who has he really beaten? Last year, Cotto beat a 39-year old fighter in Martinez suffering from a debilitating knee injury (which led to his Martinez's retirement after the fight) and who had been knocked down in each of his three fights prior to the Cotto fight. In June, Cotto defeated a 34-year old middleweight in Geale who looked weight drained and was clearly affected by the 157-pound catchweight. In tonight's fight, Cotto will be fighting a young, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is much better able to adapt to the (155 lb) catchweight.

Prefight Analysis

While this is certainly a competitive fight that could go either way, I'd give a 60/40 edge to Canelo for a few reasons:

For one, Canelo is the (much) younger, bigger, and stronger fighter. In Cotto's previous two fights, he fought a 39-year old, injury plagued fighter in Martinez and a 34-year old, weight drained, unexceptional fighter in Geale. While I'd actually still give Cotto a decent chance to win this fight by stoppage, Cotto is facing a much different animal in a 25-year old, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is perhaps more comfortable at the 155 lb catchweight than Cotto is. Furthermore, Canelo is an aggressive, but cautious fighter who has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown good improvement defensively in recent fights; Cotto likely won't be able to dominate this quality of opponent the same way he ran through Martinez and Geale. While Canelo isn't exactly known for his stamina, he is patient and preserves energy better than Cotto - I'd expect him to have an edge vs. an older, tired Cotto if the fight progresses into the later rounds.

Secondly, due to the expected strong presence of Mexican and Mexican-American fans at the fight, Canelo will essentially be fighting in front of a home crowd. As noted above, there is a chance the partisan crowd influences both the action inside the ring and the judges outside the ring in Canelo's favor. In close 12-round fights in front of pro-Canelo crowds of the past, Canelo has pretty much always benefited from favorable scoring from the judges; if this turns out to be a close, competitive 12-round fight (which is highly possible), I'd expect the decision to favor Canelo even if Cotto slightly outboxes him.

Canelo consistently brings the fight to his opponents and is a highly efficient boxer who throws splendid crowd (and judge) pleasing combinations with power that often land clean... his fan-friendly style is another element that often helps him with judges in close rounds.

Thirdly, Canelo does have experience with fighters having better movement than Cotto (e.g., Lara, Trout, and Mayweather). Although the judges' decisions were debatable, Canelo did have success in stretches pressuring Lara and Trout so I'd expect him to have at least somewhat better success pressuring Cotto - who is older, less mobile, and possesses less stamina than either Lara or Trout did at the time.

Canelo's youth, size, and power advantages - along with his ability to effectively pressure... not to mention the fact that he will be fighting in front of a solidly pro-Canelo crowd... largely explain why he is correctly favored in tonight's matchup.

But despite the fact that I feel Canelo will *probably* win tonight's fight (whether deserved or not), I actually feel the best *value* is betting on +275 underdog Cotto to win the fight. At the end of the day Cotto is just the better boxer who, in my opinion, has a clear advantage in both boxing skill and foot speed (especially foot speed). Cotto fights at both a faster mental and physical pace than the generally patient, low-output, slower Canelo; I think there is enough value not only in Cotto at +275 to win the fight but even Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 where betting on Cotto is the best bet.

I expect Cotto to outbox the slow-starting Canelo in the early rounds with a powerful body attack that will keep the slower Canelo at bay throughout much of the fight. I'd expect Cotto in the opening rounds to be mobile enough to evade Canelo's pressure but fast enough to beat Canelo to the punch during exchanges.

In my opinion, the big question is how well Cotto will perform in the later rounds as he starts to tire... but there is a good chance the typically low-output Canelo - who has stamina issues in his own right - won't be able to put enough clean punches together in the second half of the fight to win enough of the later rounds.

Again, I do like Canelo to probably win this fight due to his significant age and size advantages (which puts him in a good position to wear Cotto down as the fight progresses), as well as the strong home crowd (and perhaps judging) advantage he will have. But Cotto's clear advantages in pure skill, speed, and experience I think make betting on Cotto the best value play given the current odds.

 Regardless of who wins, I'll be at this fight personally and look forward to watching should be a great addition to the classic Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry!!!

Prediction: Cotto to win (1 unit)

[Recommended hedge bet: Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 (.5 unit)]

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Bradley vs. Rios: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight:  Timothy Bradley (32-1-1-1, 12 KOs) vs.  Brandon Rios (33-2-1, 24 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Bradley -380, Rios +340 (5 Dimes, 11/6/15)
Purse: Bradley: $1.9 million, Rios: $800,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Bradley: #4 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Bradley: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Bradley
Negatives for Bradley
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Bradley

• Current WBO welterweight title holder. As a five-time world champion at junior welterweight and welterweight, Bradley is an experienced, battle-tested boxer whose resume is on par with the best 140 and 147 lb fighters of the past decade. Other than Floyd Mayweather is the only boxer to defeat future first ballot hall-of-famers Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez. With his June 2013 split decision victory vs. Marquez, Bradley likely sealed his ticket into the International Boxing Hall of Fame. 
• A long-time undefeated fighter whose only loss in career was a competitive unanimous decision loss to Pacquiao in April 2014. As recently as last year was ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport by Ring Magazine; has defeated an impressive list of former world champions including Pacquiao, Marquez, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, Ruslan Provodnikov, Miguel Vazquez, Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Jessie Vargas, and Junior Witter. Most or all of the former world champions Bradley has beaten were better skilled, arguably tougher opponents than Rios at the time. 
• Technically savvy, versatile boxer who can outbox opponents from the outside with reach, speed, and movement but is also often willing to use his toughness and physical strength to brawl inside. Bradley is a skilled boxer who is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies during fights - shown most notably in his first fight with Pacquiao where he outworked Manny in the 2nd half of the fight. Bradley comes into this fight with Rios with a clear skill advantage.
•  Determined boxer with heart who is good at finding ways to win close fights. Despite all he's accomplished in boxing is still highly motivated and still fights like he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao over three years ago.  
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Bradley possesses very good to great vertical and horizontal movement which should allow him to have success evading Rios's pressure over the course of the fight. Rios is a relatively slow, flat-footed fighter who will likely have trouble cutting off the ring vs. the more mobile Bradley and will also likely have trouble beating Bradley to the punch due to inferior hand speed. 
• Many feel Rios is a threat to defeat Bradley by TKO/KO but Bradley has already survived (and beaten) better power punchers than Rios in Pacquiao and Provodnikov who were both also more mobile than Rios. Bradley is arguably a different level of fighter than Rios, with clear skill, speed, and quickness advantages, as well as a slight reach advantage and jab which he should be able to use to keep Rios at bay throughout most of the fight.
• Bradley has a new trainer in current ESPN boxing commentator Teddy Atlas, who has trained (or helped train) former world champions Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, and Alexander Povetkin. Atlas has not been an active trainer in recent years, but is more experienced and arguably more knowledgeable than Bradley's former trainer Joel Diaz. Atlas is reportedly training Bradley to keep distance and box from range in the upcoming fight vs. Rios, which will likely be to Bradley's advantage.
• Although Bradley has shown a questionable chin in the 12th round of recent fights vs. Vargas and Provodnikov, Bradley is a mentally tough fighter who has never been stopped in his career. The knockdowns Bradley suffered vs. Provodnikov is the only time Bradley has been knocked down in his career.
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 8.5 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of their October 2013 fight.

Negatives for Bradley

• At 32 years old, Bradley has looked past his prime and somewhat battle-worn in recent fights; in his last three fights Bradley has an unimpressive record of 1-1-1. Last year, Bradley faded in the later rounds of his loss vs. Pacquiao and draw vs. Diego Chaves (though the Chaves fight was a fight many still felt he won convincingly). In Bradley's most recent fight vs. Vargas, he was almost knocked down late in the 12th round and possibly could've been stopped if he hadn't been saved by the bell. Rios - a more natural pressure fighter with better power than Vargas - is coming off one of the more impressive wins of his career with his TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado and poses a real threat if Bradley slows down in the later rounds as he's done in recent fights.  
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which will allow Rios - who has an excellent chin - to take chances and be relentlessly aggressive throughout the fight. Unlike the Pacquiao fight, Rios won't have to worry about power with Bradley's counter punching so should have opportunities in spots to corner and unload power punches on Bradley despite his clear disadvantage in foot speed.   
• Bradley is an elusive fighter but his defense is arguably overrated and has been especially questionable as of late. Bradley has been getting hit increasingly flush in recent fights, in particular when he chooses to stand in at close range and brawl. Bradley sometimes shows an inclination to brawl (rather than box) in certain spots (an inclination that has increased since his controversial win vs. Pacquiao), which could be to his detriment vs. a dangerous pressure fighter in Rios. 
• This will be Bradley's first professional fight without Joel Diaz as his trainer. Teddy Atlas, Bradley's new trainer, is a highly respected and skilled trainer (even more so than Diaz by most accounts) but it's a huge unknown what effect a new trainer will have on an older, past prime boxer who'd only been with one trainer his entire career.

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA lightweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earlier this year scored one of the more impressive wins of his career with a 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, Colorado. (Alvarado is a former light welterweight champion who beat Rios in their previous fight.) In October 2012 Rios earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado - Alvarado's first loss as a professional. 
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (a fight which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed. If Saturday's fight vs. Bradley turns into a brawl (which it could given Bradley's inclination at times to brawl), Rios stands a good chance of having success as that type of fight comes much more naturally to Rios than Bradley.    
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in his three fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Bradley, Rios is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win.  Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be in jeopardy with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Rios is Mexican-American; due to his fan-friendly fight style and the anticipated solid presence of Mexican/Mexican-American fight fans, it is expected that the crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center will be pro-Rios.

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Bradley will be fighting a boxer with a significant advantage in technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed. Rios will have to turn fight with Bradley into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match, Bradley likely wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and slight reach advantage (which he can use to maintain distance from Rios's power punching).
• Rios has lost two out of his last four fights, including a wide unanimous decision loss to Manny Pacquiao (a fight where he arguably didn't win a single round). Rios looked good in his win earlier this year vs. Alvarado but Alvarado, by his own admittance, didn't train properly for the fight and was heavily distracted by legal and substance abuse issues. Rios's only other win in the past two years was a DQ victory last year vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last six fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for higher skilled opponents such as Alvarado in their first two fights and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Like Bradley has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his first two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who is getting older and never in his career beaten a boxer with Bradley's skill, be able to stay competitive vs. a pound-for-pound caliber fighter?

Prefight Summary

There are certainly some reasons why Rios could win this fight. Rios is highly confident and coming off perhaps the best win of his career - an easy 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado after the two split their two previous highly competitive (and fight-of-the-year caliber) fights. Although Alvarado, by his own admittance, came into the fight a bit out of shape and distracted by personal issues, Rios fought with a sense of urgency we've rarely seen in him before and looked as sharp and accurate as he has ever looked.

Rios is indeed a skilled brawler who, while not as fast or talented as Bradley, is effective at cutting off the ring and will almost certainly have his opportunities over the course of 12 rounds, especially vs. Bradley who seems to have a natural inclination towards brawling when pressured. Bradley can be elusive, but he's also shown susceptibility in recent fights to getting hit, most notably in his 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov (where he suffered the 1st knockdown of his career and appeared out on his feet on multiple occasions) and late in his most recent fight vs. Vargas, where he was hit flush and struggled to stay on his feet in the closing seconds of the 12th round. (Vargas, with only 9 KOs in 27 fights, is not known for his punching power.)

Bradley has been in some wars in recent fights and appears to be not quite the fighter he once was; if  what seems to be a rejuvenated Rios can maintain pressure on Bradley throughout the fight and turn it into a brawl, it's highly conceivable Rios could wear Bradley down and get the TKO/KO victory in the later rounds.

But, at the end of the day, I do think even a slightly past prime, battle-worn Bradley should be able to box circles around what is essentially a B-level fighter in Brandon Rios. Not a lot of people realize Bradley has been one of the top fighters pound-for-pound in the sport over the past decade (just last year ranked as high as #3 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine) and has the solid resume to back it up. Bradley has clear skill and speed advantages over Rios (as Pacquiao did when he fought Rios, though Bradley can't match Pacquiao's power) and *should* (like Pacquiao) be able to win nearly every one with effective boxing and movement.

Bradley's inclination to brawl could get him in trouble in spots but Rios, in my opinion, is too slow and flat-footed to give Bradley consistent trouble over the course of 12 rounds. Bradley has already fought (and beaten) better punchers with more skill than Rios and should have little to no problems in this fight.

I think Bradley by decision is far and away the smartest bet in this matchup *but* would recommend
hedging the bet with Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 as a knockout in the last 4-6 rounds of the fight is the only way I see Rios winning.

Prediction: Bradley by decision (2 units) 

[Recommended Hedge: Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 at +717]

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Golovkin vs. Lemieux: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Gennady Golovkin (33-0, 30 KOs) vs. David Lemieux (34-2, 31 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: October 17, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World, IBO World, WBA Super World, and interim WBC World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -1575, Lemieux +1250 (5 Dimes, 10/17/15)
Purse: Golovkin: $2 million, Lemieux: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Lemieux: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Lemieux: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Positives for Golovkin
Negatives for Golovkin
Positives for Lemieux
Negatives for Lemieux
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Golovkin

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight and reigning WBA Super and IBO middleweight champion. Undefeated at 33-0 and, with 30 KOs in 33 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (90.9%) in middleweight history. Has won his last 20 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 14 of which were middleweight title defenses. Named Ring Magazine fighter of the year in 2013 after four impressive KO victories that year. 
• Offensively gifted boxer who possesses elite KO power in both hands. Golovkin's 90.9% KO percentage (30 KOs in 33 fights) ranks first among all active current and former champions and ranks second overall in championship history. Often generates his power from wide, looping punches thrown from unorthodox angles (which have the dual effect of providing extra leverage on his punches and increasing his unpredictability). Has the potential to go down as one of the great power punchers in the history of the sport. 
• Intelligent pressure fighter who is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing. Despite being a pressure fighter, Golovkin is also a very patient, efficient boxer who tends not to waste punches. 
•  Mostly known for his outstanding power but is a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skill. Golovkin does not have great hand speed but makes up for it with an outstanding jab and methodical, accurate combination punching. Golovkin lands more jabs per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter, and other than ultra-aggressive super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz, Golovkin lands more overall punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter. 
•  Possesses an excellent chin. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out in 383 fights as an amateur and pro. 
• Has an impressive amateur pedigree, with 345 wins (including wins vs. Andre Dirrell, Lucian Bute, and Andy Lee) against only 5 losses. Won a silver medal medal for his native Kazakhstan in the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. 
• Trains with Abel Sanchez, a very underrated trainer who has trained numerous former champions including Terry Norris, Olin Norris, Carlos Baldomir, and Samuel Peter. 
• Will be fighting his fourth fight in nearly three years at Madison Square Garden in New York City. As one of the most popular fighters in the sport with a fan-friendly style, the crowd at Madison Square Garden is expected to be overwhelmingly pro-Golovkin.

Negatives for Golovkin

• Golovkin is fighting likely his toughest opponent to date in Lemieux, a younger fighter who may actually be naturally stronger than Golovkin. Golovkin has never fought a true top-tier talent and is untested vs. Lemieux's combination of power and skill.   
• Does Golovkin have the stamina to fight effectively in later rounds? Out of 33 professional fights, Golovkin has only gone to the 10th round twice in his career and only fought past the 6th round seven other times. 
• While applying pressure vs. his opponents, Golovkin sometimes has shown susceptibility to getting caught with clean counter punches (was caught a few times in his last fight vs. Willie Monroe Jr. and most notably in the 3rd round of his fight vs. July 2014 fight vs. Geale right before knocking him out). Golovkin has a great chin but often focuses more on offense than protecting himself defensively, so at times is open to be hit when he drops his guard. Lemieux is widely considered one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport and will likely be looking to knock Golovkin out; an upset TKO/KO victory is a very realistic possibility if he can land even one power shot cleanly.
• Golovkin is being promoted as possibly the next big star in boxing but he is 33 years old (over six years younger than Lemieux) and likely is towards the end of the prime of his career. 
• Though known as a pressure fighter, Golovkin is sometimes cautious in the first couple of rounds while adjusting to his opponent's style. By contrast, Lemieux is generally a very fast starter; Lemieux may be able to gain some initial momentum (and perhaps even win the fight early) by jumping on Golovkin from the opening bell.
• Is not quite as good a boxer fighting inside as he is from distance, as shown at times in his January 2013 fight vs. Gabriel Rosado and early in his fight vs. Geale. If the highly aggressive, wild-swinging Lemieux can get inside and turn the fight into a brawl he may have a chance of making the fight competitive.
• While highly accurate and efficient, Golovkin does not possess great speed or quickness, though he will have a slight advantage in both areas vs. Lemieux.

Positives for Lemieux

• Current IBF World middleweight champion. Explosive puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. Is widely considered one of the best power punchers in the sport, with 31 out of his 34 victories coming via TKO/KO; Lemieux's 86.1% KO ratio is among the highest in boxing. Overall, Lemieux is one of the best offensive fighters in the sport and will always have at least a puncher's chance vs. any opponent.
• Relentless, aggressive puncher who fully commits to most power punches. Despite some wild swinging at times, actually tends to be an accurate puncher with underrated boxing skills. Can generate power both from distance and on the inside (largely due to superior lower body strength) and is a strong finisher once he has his opponent in trouble.   
• Is currently in the prime of his career and appears to have improved (particularly on the defensive end) since losing two consecutive fights in 2011 (the only two losses of his career). Since 2011, Lemieux has won nine straight fights - seven by TKO and the other two by wide unanimous decision. Lemieux was only 22 years old when he suffered the only losses of his career; he has matured and gained experience vs. solid competition since then.
• At 26, Lemieux is the younger fighter by several (over six) years and is arguably naturally stronger than Golovkin. (Golovkin has never faced an opponent with comparable power to his own.) Lemieux is also typically a fast starter who was way ahead early even in his two losses back in 2011; if Lemieux can establish early momentum vs. Golovkin (who is sometimes cautious in the very early rounds), that may be enough to set the stage for an upset TKO/KO victory. 
• Lemieux is a mobile fighter with decent foot speed and quickness; will likely be able to evade Golovkin's attack in spots. 
• Tough, courageous fighter as evidenced by the fact he is one of very few top middleweights actually willing to fight Golovkin.

Negatives for Lemieux

• Lemieux does have two losses in his career - consecutive losses in his hometown of Montreal vs. opponents who entered the fights as substantial underdogs. Lemieux's first loss was an April 2011 7th-round TKO loss to Marco Antonio Rubio (who Golovkin easily defeated last year by 2nd-round KO); his second loss was in December 2011 to Joachim Alcine, who after beating Lemieux would go on to lose his next five fights. 
• Lemieux has shown questionable stamina in previous fights, in particular his two losses where he was worn down in middle and later rounds after jumping out to strong starts. Lemieux has a history of overexpending energy with his aggressive, haymaker style in the early rounds only to tire in later rounds. If Golovkin - who is widely considered to have one of the best chins in boxing (as he has never been knocked down or knocked out in 383 professional and amateur fights) - can withstand Lemieux's attack through the first half of the fight, the second half of the fight could be relatively easy for him; despite Lemieux's high KO% he only has one victory by TKO/KO in his career after the 7th round.  
• Although an underrated boxer, is inferior to Golovkin in terms of boxing skill and IQ. Has a straightforward, somewhat predictable boxing style and generally doesn't make too many adjustments over the course of a fight; one would expect Golovkin to eventually find holes in Lemieux's at times overaggressive, wild-swinging style.   
• Although seemingly improved over the past 3-4 years, Lemieux is still defensively flawed with a questionable chin. As a come-forward pressure fighter, he will at times leave himself open to clean counterpunching, which could be disastrous vs. arguably the best puncher in the sport in Golovkin. Lemieux was knocked down and suffered a TKO loss (via corner throwing in the towel) vs. Rubio; Golovkin is a more skilled boxer than Rubio and certainly possesses the power to look more dominant vs. Lemieux than Rubio did.

Prefight Summary

Tonight's Golovkin vs. Lemieux fight is intriguing as, on one hand, most think this fight is basically a mismatch that Lemieux has very little chance of winning yet, on the other hand, many of those same people think this will be a a can't miss, back-and-forth slugfest.

If the latter is true, then certainly Lemieux has a very realistic puncher's chance to win. Statistically, Lemieux is right up there with Golovkin as one of the top pound-for-pound punchers in the sport; Lemieux will have multiple opportunities to counter Golovkin's "Mexican style" attack with his patented haymakers. If any one of his power punches lands cleanly, even a seemingly "concrete" chin such as Golovkin's could succumb to Lemieux's power. (The fact of the matter is, Golovkin's chin has never been tested vs. a boxer with Lemieux's combination of skill, speed, and devastating power so we really don't know how his chin will hold up when truly tested.) Lemieux is the younger, arguably naturally stronger fighter in the prime of his career who has won his last nine fights and - unlike most other top middleweights - was confident enough to take the fight vs.Golovkin.

If this fight turns into the slugfest many think it will be then Lemieux - one of the elite sluggers in boxing - no doubt has at least a puncher's chance to win.

But, at the end of the day, what we have here is a boxing match (not the "street fight" Golovkin has stated he will happily be willing to engage in) and the disparity in boxing skills is why Golovkin should be the clear favorite to win.

Both boxers are aggressive pressure fighters but I like Golovkin's cautious aggressiveness to dictate this matchup. Golovkin will be more willing to wait for spots where he can exploit Lemieux's at times wild-swinging overaggressiveness with well-timed counters. Golovkin also has superior balance and footwork that will likely enable him to stay on his feet during the inevitable exchange of punches between the two heavy-handed boxers. Although Golovkin's chin has never been tested by anyone with Lemieux's power, the fact that Golovkin has never even come close to being knocked down or out in 383 amateur and professional fights is certainly strong evidence that his chin is legit.

Lemieux may very well succeed in jumping on Golovkin and landing some punches early, but it's difficult to overlook the fact that he has lost to and been forced to quit vs. boxers with far less skill than Golovkin; I very much expect that he'll be forced to quit again in the early to middle rounds of tonight's fight vs. a boxer in Golovkin who may be well on his way to becoming one of the all-time great middleweights in boxing history.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO (2 units) 

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Mayweather vs. Berto: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (48-0, 26 KOs) vs. Andre Berto (30-3, 23 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World and WBA Super World Welterweight titles
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -2400, Berto +1800 (5 Dimes, 9/12/15)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million, Berto: $4 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion, Berto: Not ranked
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Berto: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Mayweather opened in late July as a massive -7500 (1-75) favorite, with Berto initially listed as a 25-1 underdog. Public betting has since trended heavily in favor of Berto - likely because the initial odds were poor for potential Mayweather bettors (e.g., would have to bet $75 on Mayweather just to win $1), while 25-1 for a puncher like Berto may have been appealing to some. In the first few days of fight week, however, most of the betting has been on Mayweather. Mayweather is currently a strong -2400 favorite, with Berto as a +1800 (18-1) underdog.

Why Floyd Mayweather will win

By most objective measures, this fight is a clear mismatch. Mayweather is undefeated, widely considered the best boxer pound-for-pound in the sport and of this generation facing a fighter in Berto who is 3-3 in his last six fights and arguably not even one of the top 20 welterweights in the world currently.

Mayweather - possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport - is vastly superior to the defensively suspect Berto in terms of skill and boxing IQ. Mayweather is expected to land cleanly and consistently as the fight progresses while there's a good chance Berto will have trouble getting into range vs. the longer, more mobile Mayweather.

Mayweather has a clear experience advantage over Berto; in his career he's already beaten at least a dozen boxers who were better fighters than Berto (including arguably every fighter he's fought since 2005) and has decisively beaten 2 out of the 3 fighters Berto has lost to (Robert Guerrero and Victor Ortiz). Berto on the other hand, has never beaten a A or even a B+-level fighter, with his best win coming in a closely contested matchup vs. Luis Collazo over five years ago.

Mayweather is a defensively gifted fighter who has the foot speed, reach advantage (4"), and stamina to elude Berto's dangerous combination of power and speed the same way he's eluded previous opponents who had more power and speed than Berto has. Berto is over six years younger than Mayweather but, at 31 years old and after multiple debilitating injuries (including a right shoulder injury that could have been career ending), his best years may be behind him. Berto has been a seemingly more cautious fighter since the shoulder injury a couple years ago, which he can't afford to be in tonight's fight vs. Floyd.

Berto did win his last fight via 6th round TKO in March vs. a respectable opponent in Josesito Lopez, but was actually behind on two out of the three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage.

Lastly Mayweather, a Las Vegas resident, is fighting at home in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the 12th consecutive time in front of a Mayweather-friendly referee (Kenny Bayless) on a card promoted by his promotional company (Mayweather Promotions) and in front of a crowd which may actually be pro-Mayweather (which is uncharacteristic for Mayweather fights) considering the relatively undistinguished opponent he's facing.

Why Andre Berto will win

A former two-time welterweight champion and current interim WBA welterweight champion, Berto is a puncher with the classic "puncher's chance." At 32 years old (6.5 years younger than Mayweather), he still actually has quite a bit of the explosive speed and power in both hands that he had five years ago as an undefeated (27-0) world champion. Berto is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter, possesses the mobility to stalk Mayweather, and is a good ambush-style fighter when he is on his game.

Berto is a tough competitor who is known for high action fights. He'll likely be willing to exchange with Mayweather and take the risks necessary to pull off the upset, even if it means exposing himself to numerous clean Mayweather counterpunches and a possible loss by stoppage.

Berto won't win this fight by decision (i.e., by outboxing the supremely-skilled Mayweather); he'll almost surely have to win this fight by stopping Mayweather. But if Berto - who has the strength and hand speed to match Mayweather - can stay busy and apply brute pressure on Floyd, he is more than capable of landing one of his patented power shots (most notably his right uppercut) to change the course of a fight expected to be dictated by Mayweather. Berto does have a solid left jab which, if used effectively, can be used to set up additional lines of attack vs. a typically risk-averse, retreating Mayweather. Mayweather is obviously still an elite fighter, but - at 38 - he's several years past his prime and is not as mobile as he once was; Berto may be capable of staying in front of Mayweather and applying the pressure necessary to at least make Floyd uncomfortable (e.g., Marcos Maidana in his first fight with Floyd, Ricky Hatton in the early rounds of his fight with Floyd).

Berto's current trainer, Virgil Hunter, is an excellent motivator who will at minimum have Berto mentally prepared to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in boxing history.

Prefight Analysis

Honestly, I don't see Berto being competitive in this fight. Yes, he has a "puncher's chance," but so did Pacquiao, Maidana, Canelo, and many of the other fighters Mayweather has fought over the past decade or so. But they all lost. And Berto - especially at this point in his career with the injuries and being 3-3 in his last 6 fights - isn't as good as *any* of the those other boxers Mayweather has fought over the past ten years.

Berto is literally a handpicked opponent for Mayweather in a fight that Mayweather is promoting as his last fight. Mayweather is, by a very wide margin, the more skilled, experienced fighter who possesses both the length and foot speed to stay out of range vs. Berto's inevitable pressure and the accuracy to punish the defensively deficient Berto with counterpunching over the entirety of the fight.

Unless Berto catches Mayweather with something early I don't see him being competitive, as he certainly won't outbox Floyd over 12 rounds; he doesn't cut the ring off as well as other pressure fighters who've fought Floyd like Maidana and Cotto, who at least had some limited success pressuring him in spots.

In my opinion, the only question in tonight's fight is whether Mayweather wins the fight by decision or by stoppage. There has been a lot of talk from boxing analysts - and even some from Mayweather himself - of Floyd going out with a stoppage victory in what is purportedly his last fight. But Mayweather has promised excitement and possible stoppages in previous recent fights only to resort to the risk-averse, defensive style that has served him well for most of his career.

The fact of the matter is, Mayweather is 38 years old and, other than a cheap (though perfectly legal) shot vs. Victor Ortiz four years ago when Ortiz had his guard down, Mayweather hasn't stopped anyone in nearly eight years. Mayweather is also a relatively low-volume puncher with notoriously brittle hands who is facing a guy in Berto who is actually bigger and stronger than he is.

Yes, a Mayweather victory by TKO/KO is possible due to the wide skill disparity in this matchup and Berto's defensive inadequacies, but I think given Mayweather's history of fighting conservatively and not exposing himself to significant risk, there is much more value in betting on Mayweather to win by (wide) decision.

Depending on the prices you can find, I feel that the best bet on this fight is Mayweather by unanimous decision, followed by Mayweather by 12-round decision. (I bet Mayweather by unanimous decision yesterday on 5Dimes at -145 but feel this bet actually has solid value up to -200.)

Prediction: Mayweather by unanimous decision (1 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Jack vs. Groves: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Super Middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV (Mayweather vs. Berto undercard)
Line: Jack +115, Groves -135 (5 Dimes, 9/8/15)
Purse: Jack: $500,000, Groves: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Jack: #6 ranked super middleweight, Groves: #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Jack: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Groves opened in early August as the -180 favorite, with Jack as the +150 underdog. Public betting has since trended in favor of Jack - likely because he is coming off the best win of his career in winning a super middleweight title as a 4-1 underdog vs. then undefeated champion Anthony Dirrell and also probably because he is the more well-known name to the American betting public, fighting numerous times on Showtime under #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s boxing promotional firm, Mayweather Promotions. Groves is currently now only a -135 favorite, with Jack being only a +115 underdog.

Why Badou Jack will win

Jack is the current WBC World Super Middleweight champion. Jack is high in confidence after his last fight in April, a solid majority decision victory over then undefeated and WBC World Super Middleweight champion Anthony Dirrell. The victory was one of the better performances of Jack's career and is a strong sign Jack has fully recovered from his embarrassing 1st round TKO loss last year vs. journeyman Derek Edwards, who was a 14-1 underdog going into the fight. (The loss was the first and only loss of Jack's career.)

Jack has looked good in recent fights while Groves hasn't looked the same (in particular on the defensive end) since his two recent TKO losses to Carl Froch, looking less than impressive in his wins vs. relatively unknown journeymen Christopher Rebrasse and Denis Douglin.

Jack is a durable fighter while Groves has faded in the later rounds of some of his recent fights, including his two fights vs. Froch and his September 2014 fight vs. Rebrasse; Jack could conceivably outwork a tired Groves in the middle to later rounds in this fight similar to the way he outworked Dirrell in the later rounds of his most recent fight.

Jack is a solid, come-forward fighter with decent power. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks which will be key vs. an aggressive - and at times defensively irresponsible - Groves.

Lastly, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he's promoted by Floyd Mayweather under Floyd's Mayweather Promotions banner and is arguably the best fighter promoted by Mayweather. Mayweather Promotions is promoting most of the featured fighters on the Mayweather/Berto undercard and I'd expect the close fights on the undercard to be at least slightly biased in favor fighters promoted by Mayweather. Jack also currently resides in and fights out of Las Vegas, while this is only Groves' third fight in the United States.

Why George Groves will win

Groves is the better boxer. Groves has the superior technical skills, power, hand and foot speed, overall athleticism, and is the more talented fighter. Groves is a classic boxer-puncher with notable power in both hands, knocking his opponents out at a 76% TKO/KO rate; Jack suffered a 1st round TKO loss just last year to a lesser skilled opponent with less power. Jack doesn't move particularly well and has a questionable chin; given the TKO loss to Edwards, losing by TKO/KO to Groves is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Despite being the younger fighter (by 4 years), the 27-year old Groves has a significant advantage in big fight experience over Jack, having fought top-level fighters such as Carl Froch (twice), James DeGale, and Glen Johnson. In May 2011, Groves beat current IBF Super Middleweight champion and former 2008 Olympic gold medalist DeGale by majority decision in the most impressive victory of his career. (This remains the only loss of DeGale's career.) By comparison, the only top-level fighter on Jack's resume is Anthony Dirrell.

Groves's two TKO losses to Carl Froch are the only losses of his career. Both were losses where Groves was arguably outboxing Froch before getting stopped in the later rounds. Jack doesn't have nearly the KO power Froch had so likely isn't a threat to KO Groves late like Froch did.

Prefight Analysis

Groves hasn't looked as good as expected in his recent fights since his two TKO losses to Froch, employing a more high-volume, aggressive strategy which allowed him to get countered cleanly in spots vs. much lesser fighters. A similar high punch volume strategy may not work vs. Jack - a strong, solid fighter who throws counter hooks well and possesses a good scoring jab which he may use in combination with his slight length advantage to control distance. Jack is a confident fighter riding high off the best win of his career last April vs. Dirrell. He's a more durable fighter than Groves (who has a history of waning in the later rounds) and I think there's a decent change that, in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas, he scores an upset victory by outworking Groves in the middle and later rounds the same way he outworked Dirrell after trailing on the scorecards early in that fight.

With this said, I think too many practical factors favor Groves to not to pick him to win the fight. Groves is the more talented fighter with the better skills, power, hand speed, and foot movement. He is the more experienced fighter who has fought on the big stage before (including in front of approximately 80,000 people at Wembley Stadium in his 2nd fight with Froch) vs. top-level opponents. Groves has previously defeated more accomplished opponents than Jack, namely James DeGale, a former Olympic gold medalist who has top 10-15 pound-for-pound talent. Groves, a good power puncher with a 76% TKO/KO rate, has the power to hurt a relatively flat-footed Jack early, and I think there is a reasonable chance he could win this fight by stoppage.

I think that despite Groves's recent unimpressive performances vs. lesser opponents and Jack's recent title victory momentum, Groves's clear skill and experience advantages should carry him to victory vs. Jack in the main event of the Mayweather/Berto undercard. Jack has never fought an opponent with Groves's combination of talent, skill, and power and I think this will show under the pressure of the big stage in Vegas. Groves is highly capable of winning this fight by stoppage  (likely early as opposed to late), though I think there is also a good chance he wins this fight by decision; so I think Groves simply to win at -135 is the best bet in this matchup.

Prediction: Groves to win (1 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Santa Cruz vs. Mares: prefight analysis and prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (30-0-1, 17 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (29-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: August 29, 2015
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Santa Cruz -230, Mares +190 (5 Dimes, 8/29/15)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $1.25 million, Mares: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #2 ranked junior featherweight, Mares: #4 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Santa Cruz
Negatives for Santa Cruz
Positives for Mares
Negatives for Mares
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Santa Cruz

• Undefeated boxer (30-0-1) who is the former IBF Bantamweight (122 lbs) and current WBC Super Bantamweight (126 lbs) champion. Hyper-aggressive, relentless puncher who - per CompuBox stats - both throws and lands more punches than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer.   
• Come-forward pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with an accumulation of punches thrown from a wide array of angles. But despite his high activity is a surprisingly accurate and efficient fighter; often throws over 100 punches in a round and lands around 40 percent of those punches, a percentage which - per CompuBox stats - ranks third behind only Floyd Mayweather and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Adept at setting opponents up with the jab in early rounds to set-up rapid multi-punch flurries in later rounds as his opponents tire. 
• Technically sound boxer with a fairly good high guard defense; per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz opponents only land approximately 25 percent of their punches. Has also shown a very good chin thus far in his career, having only been knocked down once in 31 professional fights (knocked down in the 4th round of his August 2009 fight vs. Robert DaLuz, a fight he won by unanimous decision). Has a better chin and better defensive skills than Mares, which will come into play if this fight turns into a brawl.
• Has excellent stamina; despite throwing more punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer, Santa Cruz doesn't seem to tire. Fights with as much energy in middle to late rounds as he does in early rounds.
• Relatively tall fighter for this weight class (5'7") and will come into this fight vs. Mares as the taller (3" height advantage) and likely slightly larger fighter in size. Relatively long-limbed fighter (69" reach) who will also have a 3" reach advantage so may be able to keep Mares, a specialist at fighting inside, at arm's length with his jab if needed.
• Mares is the more proven, experienced fighter but Santa Cruz is actually considered the "A-side" fighter in this matchup, considering that Santa Cruz has gotten more of the press attention and his name is getting top billing for the fight. Both Mares and Santa Cruz are managed by Al Haymon and his Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) promotional company but Haymon and PBC appear to be mainly promoting Santa Cruz as a potential future superstar in the sport. As the more "politically connected" fighter, there is a greater chance of Santa Cruz getting the decision in a close fight - even if Mares turns in the slightly better performance.
• Is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Looking to gain the first marquee win of his career by defeating Mares.

Negatives for Santa Cruz

• Santa Cruz is a largely untested fighter who has fought questionable competition over the course of his career. Most notable wins came vs. relatively unknown Christian Mijares, Victor Terrazas, and Eric Morel - all former world champions but were arguably past their prime at the time they fought Santa Cruz. How will Santa Cruz fare in his first fight vs. a true top-level opponent in Mares? Mares comes into this fight with a clear advantage in both experience and quality of competition.
• Santa Cruz is the taller, naturally bigger fighter but will be fighting in only his 2nd fight as a featherweight, having just moved up from junior featherweight earlier this year. Mares has fought five fights at featherweight over the past two years and has won a world title at this weight class. 
• Mares is the technically superior fighter whose lone loss came via 1st round KO vs. a boxer with legitimate one-punch KO power (Jhonny Gonzalez). Santa Cruz - a volume puncher - does not have elite punching power, with only 17 of his 30 wins coming by TKO/KO. To win this fight, Santa Cruz will likely have to overwhelm Mares with an accumulation of punches as he does not have the power to change the course of the fight with one punch the same way Gonzalez did.
• Santa Cruz's high guard defense, while fairly effective, leaves him susceptible to body punching, something which Mares excels at. Santa Cruz's height advantage and propensity to fight on the inside may also work against him here as shorter fighters (as Mares is in this matchup) generally have more success to the body when fighting inside. 
• Although having a better chin and better defense than Mares, Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter who will inevitably get hit in his attempts to apply pressure. How will Santa Cruz's defense hold up vs. Mares, a more skilled, mobile fighter who can beat Santa Cruz to the punch with his faster hands? 
• Santa Cruz is used to controlling the tempo and applying pressure in his fights as he comes forward; in this fight he will (for the first time in his career) be facing another highly-skilled, former pound-for-pond ranked pressure fighter who may force him at times to fight off his back foot. How will Santa Cruz fare if Mares is successful pressuring him backwards towards the ropes? In previous fights, Santa Cruz has appeared uncomfortable when fighting off his back foot.

Positives for Mares

• Former IBF Bantamweight, WBC Super Bantamweight, and WBC Featherweight champion. Aggressive brawler with good boxing skills who just two years ago was undefeated and ranked #5 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list before a 1st round KO loss to Jhonny Gonzales. Represented Mexico at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
• Like Santa Cruz, is a high-volume pressure fighter, but is more versatile and has better boxing skills. Rough, physical fighter who is a very good body puncher and adept at brawling from the inside (including the use of questionably dirty veteran tricks) but has the ability to adjust and box from the outside if necessary (as shown in his 2nd fight vs. Joseph Agbeko). Is particularly effective with his jab and left hook.  
• Compared to Santa Cruz is the more established world-class fighter with a significant advantage in experience. Within the past five years has fought - and beaten - former world champions such as Vic Darchinyan, Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno, and Daniel Ponce De Leon. Lone loss was a 1st-round KO loss to power puncher Jhonny Gonzalez (for whom Mares used to be a sparring partner years ago) in August 2013; Mares is 3-0 since that KO loss. Mares is also the more experienced fighter at featherweight (this will only be Santa Cruz's 2nd fight at featherweight).
• Mares is the more talented, skilled boxer with better punching power and slightly quicker hands. Is also the more mobile figher who appears to be much more capable of fighting off his back foot (e.g., when being pressured). Mares is 3 inches shorter than Santa Cruz but his shorter height may be to his advantage if the fight turns into an inside brawl as many expect. (Shorter fighters have easier access to the body - particularly vs. a high guard defense like the one Santa Cruz has - and Mares is a very skilled body puncher.) 
• Other than the KO loss to Gonzalez, Mares has generally shown a good chin throughout his career. Other than the Gonzalez fight, Mares has only been knocked down once in his career - in the 2nd round of a December 2010 split-decision victory vs. former Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter and 3-division world champion Darchinyan.

Negatives for Mares

• Mares's most memorable fight was the 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez; Mares is 3-0 in the two years since that loss but all 3 wins were fairly unimpressive wins vs. lower quality opponents. Mares does not appear to be the same pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was prior to the loss to Gonzalez so unclear how we will perform stepping back up to face a higher quality opponent in Santa Cruz, who is arguably the toughest opponent to date in his career. Fighters are often more timid and cautious after suffering brutal KO losses, which appears to be the case with Mares.     
• As an inside pressure fighter Mares is highly susceptible to clean counter punching; statistically, Santa Cruz throws and lands more punches than anyone in boxing (and does so at a high connect percentage even going into middle and later rounds) so can easily see Mares wearing down vs. Santa Cruz's avalanche of punches as the fight progresses. Santa Cruz will inevitably have stretches of success landing vs. Mares - the question is how well Mares can withstand Santa Cruz's relentless attack. 
• Is considered by some to be one of the dirtiest fighters in boxing (if not the dirtiest fighter). Has been guilty of landing multiple low blows in fights, most notably in his 1st fight vs. Agbeko (a fight where many felt he should have been disqualified), as well as his fights vs. Darchinyan and Moreno. Mares has suffered point deductions in previous fights due to dirty tactics and will be prone to getting deducted points in tonight's fight vs. Santa Cruz, especially considering that Santa Cruz is a taller fighter who will be looking to fight inside vs. Mares. 
• Mares has more power than Santa Cruz but, like Santa Cruz, is not a big KO puncher; only 15 of Mares's 29 wins came via TKO/KO. If Mares is going to win this fight, it's very likely he'll have to win a decision.

Prefight Summary

There is a pretty good argument that most of the metrics for this fight favor Abner Mares. Mares is after all by far the more experienced boxer, having beaten a string of tough reigning or former world champions  over the course of a 2.5 year span to become a 3-division world champion and at one time a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. (Santa Cruz by comparison is notably unproven; tonight will be the first test in his career vs. a top-level opponent.)

Mares is also generally considered the more talented, skilled boxer with slightly greater punching power, quicker hands, and better foot movement. In reviewing previous fights, Mares appears to be a more savvy ring general than the sometimes mechanical Santa Cruz and is a particularly savvy fighter brawling from the inside, where many expect much of the action in this fight to take place. As mentioned previously, Mares's shorter height may prove to be a key advantage when he goes to the body vs. the taller Santa Cruz who, with his high guard defense, will leave his body exposed in spots. Mares is a veteran brawler with many tricks (both clean and a bit dirty) up his sleeve; while I don't think he has the punching power to beat the more durable, less battle-worn Santa Cruz by TKO/KO, I would not at all be surprised if he outboxes Santa Cruz en route to a decision victory.

But Mares hasn't looked impressive in his last 3 fights vs. B and C-level competition (despite having a 3-0 record in those 3 fights) and, at the end of the day, I don't see him withstanding Santa Cruz's relentless pressure and prolific work rate over the course of a 12-round fight that is likely to be more of a brawl than a boxing match. In this specific matchup I see Santa Cruz's energy and unmatched activity overwhelming Mares's skill and slight power and speed advantages, especially considering Mares's skills appear to have diminished a bit since his KO loss to Gonzalez. Mares, a defensively-lacking pressure fighter, will be right in front of Santa Cruz for much of the night and I don't like his chances vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume punch rate. Santa Cruz is the less experienced, less proven fighter in this matchup for sure but he has shown very good skill and surprising (given the number of punches he throws) accuracy in recent fights and appears more than ready for the step up to face higher-level opposition like Mares. Although fighting lesser-skilled opponents, Santa Cruz has generally looked impressive in recent fights while Mares - a brawler who has been in a lot of wars in recent years - hasn't looked quite the same since his 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez two years ago.

Despite perhaps still being the more skilled boxer with quicker hands, I don't think even an aggressive pressure fighter like Mares will have the punch output necessary to match Santa Cruz, whose work rate and stamina I think will largely stymie Mares's typically high-volume attack over the course of 12 rounds. I think Mares's loss to Gonzalez was the beginning of the end for Mares as a top-level boxer and that this fight will reveal further how his previously very highly regarded offensive skills have diminished.

I see Santa Cruz outworking Mares as the fight progresses (i.e., as Mares tires from foot movement and the accumulation of Santa Cruz punches) en route to a clear but competitive decision victory, with perhaps even an outside chance at a stoppage by Santa Cruz in the later rounds. Sorry to say but I also think that if this fight is close (which is a good possibility), even to the point of Mares slightly outboxing Santa Cruz, there is a good chance that the more "politically connected" fighter in Santa Cruz will be granted a controversial decision, especially considering that it will be tough for judges to overlook Santa Cruz's energy and high activity even if all the punches aren't landing.

So I like Santa Cruz's punch volume and durability over Mares's advantages in skill, power, and speed, especially when you consider that Mares's skills appear to have diminished in recent fights.

In any case, this is a classic matchup of two Mexican brawlers (think Barrera vs. Morales, Marquez vs.Vazquez, Corrales vs. Castillo, though Corrales was only half-Mexican) that has all the makings of a strong fight of the year candidate. On paper this is the best matchup PBC has offered in the nearly six months they've been broadcasting fights and I'm excited and intrigued to see how tonight's fight plays out!!! 

Prediction: Santa Cruz to win 

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Cotto vs. Geale: prefight analysis and prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Miguel Cotto (39-4, 32 KOs) vs. Daniel Geale (31-3, 16 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Cotto: -620, Geale: +515 (5 Dimes, 6/6/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion; Geale: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Geale: Orthodox


Positives for Cotto
Negatives for Cotto
Positives for Geale
Negatives for Geale
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Cotto

• Current WBC and Ring Magazine champion in the middleweight (160 lbs) division. Future hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, light middleweight, and middleweight). One of the best boxers of this generation.
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Stocky, physically strong boxer who pressures well to the body; Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in boxing. Has good power in both hands - especially his left - and throws combination punches very well. Has a deceptively powerful, accurate lead jab. Cotto has won 32 of his 43 fights by TKO/KO, a higher career TKO/KO percentage (74.4%) than current notable heavy punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, and Carl Froch. Cotto's last five wins have been by TKO/KO.
• Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from inside if needed. Naturally left-handed fighter who mostly fights from the orthodox position, but is capable at fighting from southpaw stance as needed. (Is adept at adjusting his range and stance based on his opponent.) 
• Technically sound fighter who will possess a speed, skill, and power advantage vs. Geale.
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. In his most recent fight (June 2014), upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Sergio Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had lost only one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Barclays Center as the official kickoff event for National Puerto Rican Day parade week. Cotto is 9-1 when fighting in New York City, including 5-0 the week of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 7-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history. After two consecutive losses in 2012 and contemplating retirement, has rejuvenated his career (and confidence) since hiring Roach with two straight TKO victories and earning his first middleweight championship. 

Negatives for Cotto

• Cotto is 34 years old and hasn't fought in nearly a year; how will the long layoff affect his performance? Although he has resurrected his career  with a couple of nice victories, he's not the elite pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was in his prime. (Cotto's power and speed have declined a bit over the past few years.)
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Cotto often neglects head movement, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. If a rugged, high volume middleweight like Geale has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be much closer than expected.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for only the second time in his career vs. one of the best middleweights in the world in Daniel Geale, who will come into this fight with significant advantages in size, reach, and height. Cotto beat one of the best middleweights in boxing history in his most recent fight vs. Martinez but how good was his win vs. Martinez? At the time, Martinez was a 39-year old fighter well past his prime with a debilitating knee injury that clearly affected his performance (and will lead to a probable retirement in the near future). How will Cotto, who spent the majority of his career at light welterweight (140lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) fare vs. a younger, healthier, more durable opponent who will likely enter the ring at over 170 lbs on fight night? I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotto have problems with Geale's combination of toughness, size, reach, and skill.    
• Cotto is a battle-worn fighter who has been through numerous wars and has at times been tested vs. bigger fighters with good boxing skills. In front of a largely pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden, Cotto lost a clear unanimous decision to Austin Trout in December 2012. He won a close split decision victory vs. Joshua Clottey in June 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. Geale is a bigger, highly-ranked contender that is comparable to Trout and Clottey in both skill and reach advantage.
• Cotto gets cut easily due to the scar tissue above both his eyes. If the larger, high volume puncher Geale stays busy and gets Cotto's face bleeding in the early or mid rounds the blood could certainly negatively affect Cotto's performance (as well as boost Geale's confidence).
• Cotto has shown questionable stamina in the past, having a tendency to tire later in fights - most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. Cotto also noticeably tired in the later rounds in his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, losing all of the later rounds in both fights and getting stopped by Pacquiao in the 12th round of their fight.

Positives for Geale

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight fighter. Three-time former middleweight champion who has been ranked among Ring Magazine's top 5 middleweights since 2010. Solid high-volume, come-forward fighter with good foot movement for his size.  
• Experienced, gritty fighter with an effective jab from range but is also more than willing to stay in the pocket and exchange inside. Throws overhand rights and hooks well behind his jab. Is a good body puncher with solid overall boxing skills. 
• Geale has only lost three times in 34 career fights with two of the losses by highly competitive, controversial split decisions (August 2013 loss to Darren Barker and May 2009 loss to Anthony Mundine). Has fought and beaten solid competition, including a split decision victory vs. then middleweight champion Felix Sturm in Sturm's home country of Germany and a unanimous decision victory in his rematch with Mundine in Mundine's home city of Sydney, Australia. 
• Unlike Cotto, is a true middleweight and will come into this fight as the larger man with a 3" height advantage and 4" reach advantage. May weigh up to 175 lbs on fight night, which will likely give him a 10-15 pound advantage vs. Cotto. Cotto has had trouble in some previous fights vs. larger, longer fighters with good movement (most notably his December 2012 loss vs. Trout). 
• Is a durable fighter with a fairly good chin and pretty good head movement. Geale's only loss by TKO/KO was to Gennady Golovkin, the current Ring Magazine #4 pound-for-pound boxer who holds the highest TKO/KO percentage in middleweight boxing history (90.9%). Despite the TKO/KO loss, Geale exchanged effectively at times and at times made Golovkin miss punches wildly with his movement. Other than the loss to Golovkin, Geale has never come close to being stopped.
• Has good stamina, which could come into play vs. Cotto, who has a history of tiring in later rounds.
• Generally unflappable fighter who has experience beating heavily favored opponents in front of hostile crowds (see his upset victory vs. then middleweight champion Sturm, who had a 14-fight unbeaten streak before losing to Geale). 

Negatives for Geale

• Geale is an over 5-1 underdog for a reason. He is the technically inferior fighter and will also have a power and speed disadvantage vs. Cotto. Geale is coming from another continent to fight in front of a hostile, pro-Cotto fight on the biggest stage of his career vs. the much more experienced Cotto, who is used to the big stage. Cotto lost in December 2012 to a larger, similarly skilled opponent to Geale in Trout but Trout was a southpaw with quicker movement than Geale; it will be tough for Geale to overcome Cotto's speed advantage.  
• Cotto is defensively flawed but Geale is not a big puncher (only 16 wins by TKO/KO in 34 fights) so likely isn't a serious threat to exploit Cotto's flaws and stop or hurt Cotto badly.   
• Despite being a middleweight (160 lbs) title fight, the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs which required Geale, a natural middleweight, to cut more weight than usual - which he reportedly had trouble doing. Athletes (especially boxers who generally have a low body fat percentage to begin with) cutting weight below their natural size often leads to dehydration and muscle loss, which could affect Geale's stamina and overall performance in tonight's fight.  
• Like Cotto, Geale has his share of defensive deficiencies. Often drops his hands and can be slow to put up his guard after throwing punches, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also doesn't protect his body well; Geale is a competent fighter in the pocket but against a great body puncher like Cotto will probably take the worst of exchanges on the inside, where Cotto's shorter height and short punches are actually an advantage vs. a taller boxer like Geale.
• Geale is a durable fighter with an above average chin but he has been knocked down in at least five fights in his career, including twice in last year's TKO loss to Golovkin.

Prefight Summary


If you believe Cotto's surprising TKO victory last year vs. Sergio Martinez was an impressive win vs. a sufficiently able-bodied, top 10 pound-for-pound all-time great middleweight then you have little reason to believe tonight's fight vs. a lesser opponent in Geale will result in anything other than a wide unanimous decision or stoppage for Cotto. Cotto is the more experienced, skilled fighter with the power and speed advantage facing a fighter who - while bigger than he is - doesn't have much punching power and has defensive flaws that will leave him susceptible to Cotto's vicious body attack. While Geale has good movement, he is by nature often more than willing to stay in the pocket and trade punches, which will likely be to his detriment vs. the quicker, more accurate Cotto who is one of the best body punchers in the sport. If you believe this version of Cotto, who has been dominant in his last two fights since switching to trainer Freddie Roach a couple years ago, is a reincarnation of prime Miguel Cotto then there's little reason to think this will be a difficult fight for him,  

But I think Cotto is being overvalued, while Geale is being undervalued coming into this fight. The reality is Cotto is past his prime and coming off a year-long layoff after beating a 39-year old fighter in Martinez who came into the fight with a debilitating knee issue. While Cotto looked good in the fight, it was clear Martinez was severely limited due to the knee injury and even then Cotto was unable to stop Sergio until the 10th round after knocking him down three times way back in the 1st round. Cotto has fought better in his last couple of fights after the consecutive losses to Mayweather and Trout in 2012 (which left him contemplating retirement), but the reality is he does not have the same power or speed at 34 years old that made him an elite fighter in his prime.

Geale is being undervalued largely due to relative lack of name recognition and Golovkin making him look like a journeyman in his dominant 3rd round TKO victory over Geale last year (most thought Geale would put up a better fight), but the reality is Geale has been a highly regarded, top-ranked middleweight for many years. The fight with Golovkin is the only fight of Geale's career where he's been stopped; other than Golovkin, Geale's only other losses were controversial split-decision losses vs. very solid opponents in Anthony Mundine and Darren Barker.

I actually think Geale has a realistic chance to win this fight. He is a tough, savvy veteran with good foot movement who should be able to use his size and reach advantage to frustrate the defensively flawed Cotto in spots. Geale is volume puncher with an effective jab and follows up with punches behind his jab (in particular his overhand right and left hook) well. If Geale can be effective with his punch combinations and cut Cotto early (Cotto has a history of bleeding easily due mostly to the scar tissue above his eyes) the fight could potentially get interesting - especially in the later rounds where Cotto is known to tire. With his reach advantage, volume punching, and movement, Geale has the skills to box with Cotto from range but also has the size and toughness to outmuscle the quicker but smaller Cotto inside.

While I feel this is a winnable fight for Geale, I think Cotto's top-level skill, heavy-handed body punching, and speed will be too much for Geale, whose (lack of) power poses little threat as a counter for Cotto's attack. Despite Geale's reach advantage and ability to move on his feet, Cotto is faster and should be able to get inside on Geale to land the effective shots necessary to earn a competitive but clear decision victory in front of what will be a Cotto-friendly crowd at Barclays. Cotto's last five victories have actually come via TKO but Cotto, especially at this stage of his career, is no Golovkin - I don't see him knocking out a true middleweight (who will likely outweight him by 10-15 lbs by the time of the fight) who is durable and moves as well as Geale.

With this said, I do think Geale's size, movement, and reach make the current 7-1 odds for Geale to win the fight by 12-round decision a good value bet so I strongly recommend this play as a smaller hedge with Cotto by 12-round decision at 1.4-1 odds as the primary bet (both bets are available at 5 Dimes). For example if risking $100 on Cotto to win the by decision, I would hedge the play with a $10-15 bet on Geale to win by decision at 7-1 to cover any potential losses from the Cotto bet.

Either way I think this will be a good fight that will go the distance so a simpler, less risky alternative play would be to bet that the fight goes the distance (currently -120 at 5 Dimes).

Final thought is to be aware that two key questions make this fight somewhat risky to bet: 1) How will a 34-year old Cotto perform after a one-year layoff from fighting? and 2) How will the 157 lb catchweight affect Geale, who apparently struggled to make weight and hasn't fought below 160 lbs in years?

Prediction: Cotto by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Geale by decision (+714)]

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!