Fight: Danny Garcia (29-0, 17 KOs) vs. Lamont Peterson (33-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 11, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 143 lbs
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Garcia -400, Peterson +325 (5 Dimes, 4/10/15)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Peterson: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: junior welterweight champion, Peterson: #2 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Peterson: Orthodox
Positives for Garcia
Negatives for Garcia
Positives for Peterson
Negatives for Peterson
Summary/Prediction
Positives for Garcia
- Undefeated boxer (29-0) and current WBC, WBA Super, and Ring Magazine light welterweight (140 lbs) champion. Poised, patient counterpuncher with good power who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated world champion and one of the best boxers in the sport. Only 27 years old (over 4 years younger than Peterson) and currently in the prime of his career.
- Smart, seemingly unflappable boxer with solid boxing skills and hand speed who generally positions himself well in executing his versatile attack. Overall well-rounded boxer with no true glaring weaknesses.
- Has very underrated, dangerous punching power, despite only having 17 KOs in 29 fights (58.6%). Garcia has knocked down 6 of his last 7 opponents, knocking them down a total of 10 times. Garcia's knockouts usually come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch (and happens to be one of the best left hooks, if not the best left hook, in the sport).
- Has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top quality opponents such as Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, Zab Judah, and Lucas Matthysse. Was a significant underdog vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory in July 2012 and vs. elite power puncher Matthysse, who he knocked down once en route to a competitive but clear unanimous decision win on the Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez undercard in September 2013. In defeating Matthysse, Garcia defeated an opponent who'd just defeated Peterson by 3rd round TKO a few months prior.
- Strong, durable fighter with an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
- Of Puerto Rican descent (both parents are from Puerto Rico) and will be fighting in New York City, a city only a couple hours from his hometown of Philadelphia and known for its large Puerto Rican population. The crowd at Barclays Center will likely be pro-Garcia.
- Undefeated boxer (29-0) and current WBC, WBA Super, and Ring Magazine light welterweight (140 lbs) champion. Poised, patient counterpuncher with good power who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated world champion and one of the best boxers in the sport. Only 27 years old (over 4 years younger than Peterson) and currently in the prime of his career.
- Smart, seemingly unflappable boxer with solid boxing skills and hand speed who generally positions himself well in executing his versatile attack. Overall well-rounded boxer with no true glaring weaknesses.
- Has very underrated, dangerous punching power, despite only having 17 KOs in 29 fights (58.6%). Garcia has knocked down 6 of his last 7 opponents, knocking them down a total of 10 times. Garcia's knockouts usually come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch (and happens to be one of the best left hooks, if not the best left hook, in the sport).
- Has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top quality opponents such as Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, Zab Judah, and Lucas Matthysse. Was a significant underdog vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory in July 2012 and vs. elite power puncher Matthysse, who he knocked down once en route to a competitive but clear unanimous decision win on the Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez undercard in September 2013. In defeating Matthysse, Garcia defeated an opponent who'd just defeated Peterson by 3rd round TKO a few months prior.
- Strong, durable fighter with an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
- Of Puerto Rican descent (both parents are from Puerto Rico) and will be fighting in New York City, a city only a couple hours from his hometown of Philadelphia and known for its large Puerto Rican population. The crowd at Barclays Center will likely be pro-Garcia.
Negatives for Garcia
- Arguably overrated fighter whose recent wins perhaps aren't all as impressive as they appear to be on paper. In a span of a little over a year beat future first ballot hall-of-famer Morales twice and 5-time world champion Judah, but both opponents were well past their primes at the time of those fights. Most felt Garcia lost his March 2014 majority decision victory vs. tough but light-hitting journeyman Mauricio Herrera in front of a heavily pro-Garcia crowd in Puerto Rico. Has been widely accused of avoiding top quality opponents in recent fights.
- Has pretty good boxing skills but is not an elite technician and is capable of being outboxed. Has arguably been outboxed for stretches of numerous fights, including his fight with Herrera, the early rounds of his first fight vs. Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and his close split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane in February 2010.
- Garcia's nickname, "Swift," is somewhat of a misnomer; while he has good hand speed, he is a bit flat-footed. In Peterson, Garcia will be facing a technically superior boxer who moves well around the ring.
- In executing his attack, sometimes neglects defense which can make him easy to hit.
- Arguably overrated fighter whose recent wins perhaps aren't all as impressive as they appear to be on paper. In a span of a little over a year beat future first ballot hall-of-famer Morales twice and 5-time world champion Judah, but both opponents were well past their primes at the time of those fights. Most felt Garcia lost his March 2014 majority decision victory vs. tough but light-hitting journeyman Mauricio Herrera in front of a heavily pro-Garcia crowd in Puerto Rico. Has been widely accused of avoiding top quality opponents in recent fights.
- Has pretty good boxing skills but is not an elite technician and is capable of being outboxed. Has arguably been outboxed for stretches of numerous fights, including his fight with Herrera, the early rounds of his first fight vs. Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and his close split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane in February 2010.
- Garcia's nickname, "Swift," is somewhat of a misnomer; while he has good hand speed, he is a bit flat-footed. In Peterson, Garcia will be facing a technically superior boxer who moves well around the ring.
- In executing his attack, sometimes neglects defense which can make him easy to hit.
Positives for Peterson
- Former WBA Super and current IBF light welterweight champion. Experienced, clever boxer with a solid amateur pedigree (including National Golden Gloves championship at lightweight back in 2001). Has suffered only two losses in his career - the first in December 2009 to then undefeated and current Ring Magazine #6 pound-for-pound fighter Timothy Bradley and most recently in May 2013 to highly regarded power puncher Lucas Matthysse.
- Technically solid, legit world-class fighter with good speed, footwork, and endurance. Adept at making adjustments during fights and generally fights better in the mid to late rounds as he wears his opponents down. Comes into this fight vs. Garcia as the technically superior boxer.
- Adept using the jab (in particular his left jab, which is his best punch) and foot movement to control distance and outbox opponents from the outside but is also capable of coming forward and applying pressure on the inside, as demonstrated in his December 2011 upset victory over Khan to win his current IBF lightweight championship.
- Relatively tall, lanky fighter who will enter the ring with a slight size and 3.5" reach advantage vs. Garcia. If Peterson uses his reach and sticks with his jab (a punch which gave Garcia numerous problems in his recent controversial win vs. Herrera) it could spell trouble for Garcia.
- Since his TKO loss vs. Mattysse, has performed impressively in his most recent fights vs. then undefeated Dierry Jean and Edgar Santana.
- Not a big puncher (as evidenced by his 47.2% KO ratio), but applies pressure well and punches hard enough to make opponents respect the decent power he has.
- Former WBA Super and current IBF light welterweight champion. Experienced, clever boxer with a solid amateur pedigree (including National Golden Gloves championship at lightweight back in 2001). Has suffered only two losses in his career - the first in December 2009 to then undefeated and current Ring Magazine #6 pound-for-pound fighter Timothy Bradley and most recently in May 2013 to highly regarded power puncher Lucas Matthysse.
- Technically solid, legit world-class fighter with good speed, footwork, and endurance. Adept at making adjustments during fights and generally fights better in the mid to late rounds as he wears his opponents down. Comes into this fight vs. Garcia as the technically superior boxer.
- Adept using the jab (in particular his left jab, which is his best punch) and foot movement to control distance and outbox opponents from the outside but is also capable of coming forward and applying pressure on the inside, as demonstrated in his December 2011 upset victory over Khan to win his current IBF lightweight championship.
- Relatively tall, lanky fighter who will enter the ring with a slight size and 3.5" reach advantage vs. Garcia. If Peterson uses his reach and sticks with his jab (a punch which gave Garcia numerous problems in his recent controversial win vs. Herrera) it could spell trouble for Garcia.
- Since his TKO loss vs. Mattysse, has performed impressively in his most recent fights vs. then undefeated Dierry Jean and Edgar Santana.
- Not a big puncher (as evidenced by his 47.2% KO ratio), but applies pressure well and punches hard enough to make opponents respect the decent power he has.
Negatives for Peterson
- Peterson has for a long time been regarded as one of the better boxers in the sport but has generally not fared well vs. top-level competition. Suffered decisive losses when stepping up in competition vs. Bradley and Matthysse and had to fight his way back in later rounds to earn a draw vs. Victor Ortiz in December 2010. Scored upset split decision victory vs. Khan in his hometown of D.C. to win the WBA Super and IBF light welterweight titles but the judging and refereeing during the fight (which included 2 point deductions from Khan) was regarded by many as highly questionable. Peterson was stripped of the WBA Super light welterweight title shortly before a scheduled May 2012 rematch with Khan due to testing positive for synthetic testosterone - which cast doubt on his performance in the first fight with Khan. Other than Khan, Peterson's best win was an 8th round TKO of former world champion Kendall Holt.
- Questionable defense and chin. Peterson has been knocked down 7 times in his last 4 fights vs. high-profile opponents (knocked down three times in his 3rd round TKO loss vs. Matthysse, once vs. Khan, twice vs. Ortiz, and even once vs. Bradley - who is notorious for his lack of punching power). At times can be easy to hit; sometimes drops his hands during exchanges, which could leave him wide open for Garcia's vicious left hook.
- Peterson has a tendency to start fights slowly while adjusting to his opponent; Peterson can get away with slow starts vs. lesser opponents but against a higher-level opponent like Garcia the first few rounds could be the difference in the fight.
- Has decent, but not great power, as evidenced by the fact that he's only scored 17 TKO/KO victories in 36 professional fights (47.2% KO ratio). Garcia has an excellent chin so if Peterson is going to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision.
- Peterson has for a long time been regarded as one of the better boxers in the sport but has generally not fared well vs. top-level competition. Suffered decisive losses when stepping up in competition vs. Bradley and Matthysse and had to fight his way back in later rounds to earn a draw vs. Victor Ortiz in December 2010. Scored upset split decision victory vs. Khan in his hometown of D.C. to win the WBA Super and IBF light welterweight titles but the judging and refereeing during the fight (which included 2 point deductions from Khan) was regarded by many as highly questionable. Peterson was stripped of the WBA Super light welterweight title shortly before a scheduled May 2012 rematch with Khan due to testing positive for synthetic testosterone - which cast doubt on his performance in the first fight with Khan. Other than Khan, Peterson's best win was an 8th round TKO of former world champion Kendall Holt.
- Questionable defense and chin. Peterson has been knocked down 7 times in his last 4 fights vs. high-profile opponents (knocked down three times in his 3rd round TKO loss vs. Matthysse, once vs. Khan, twice vs. Ortiz, and even once vs. Bradley - who is notorious for his lack of punching power). At times can be easy to hit; sometimes drops his hands during exchanges, which could leave him wide open for Garcia's vicious left hook.
- Peterson has a tendency to start fights slowly while adjusting to his opponent; Peterson can get away with slow starts vs. lesser opponents but against a higher-level opponent like Garcia the first few rounds could be the difference in the fight.
- Has decent, but not great power, as evidenced by the fact that he's only scored 17 TKO/KO victories in 36 professional fights (47.2% KO ratio). Garcia has an excellent chin so if Peterson is going to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision.
To be honest, Peterson is probably the better boxer in this matchup. He has more experience, is more technically skilled, and will be the (slightly) bigger man coming into the fight. Peterson's reach advantage combined with his potent jab, speed, and footwork should pose major problems for Garcia, especially if Peterson stays outside and fights the patient, smart fight he's capable of fighting. Garcia has been outboxed in stretches numerous times in the past vs. opponents of Peterson's caliber (or even a bit worse) and has shown a particular susceptibility to jabs in a recent, hugely controversial split decision victory vs. Herrera (most felt he lost that fight), a fighter not as well regarded as Peterson.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Peterson, currently listed as an over 3-1 underdog, score the upset victory in a fight I'd grade him as having a 35-40% chance to win - especially if he can get through the early rounds as he tends to fight better in later rounds as he adjusts to his opponents.
But I see the combination of Garcia's sneaky power and Peterson's shaky chin being the difference in this fight. I believe Garcia, who is a patient, very solid all-around boxer in his own right, will eventually catch Peterson with his patented combinations and left hooks. Unlike Herrera, who has an excellent chin (as evidenced by the fact that he's never been knocked down or knocked out in his career), Garcia's power will affect Peterson's ability to execute his attack... especially given that Peterson is prone to applying pressure to his opponents, which should set up spots for clean counterpunching from Garcia. This, combined with the fact that Peterson is a slow starter to begin with and the fact that Garcia has time and again stepped up big in high-profile fights, compels me to give the edge to Garcia. But given Peterson's solid foot movement and the fact that Garcia isn't an overly aggressive power puncher I think it's more likely Garcia wins the fight by decision rather than by TKO/KO.
If I was betting this fight, I'd take the bet on Garcia to win by decision but the odds on Peterson to win by decision (+480 on 5 Dimes) are so attractive that I'd strongly recommend placing a smaller amount on Peterson by decision as a hedge play. Would even consider Peterson by decision as the primary play, given that +480 is an excellent price for a fighter I'd grade as having a 35-40% chance to pull off the upset.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Peterson, currently listed as an over 3-1 underdog, score the upset victory in a fight I'd grade him as having a 35-40% chance to win - especially if he can get through the early rounds as he tends to fight better in later rounds as he adjusts to his opponents.
But I see the combination of Garcia's sneaky power and Peterson's shaky chin being the difference in this fight. I believe Garcia, who is a patient, very solid all-around boxer in his own right, will eventually catch Peterson with his patented combinations and left hooks. Unlike Herrera, who has an excellent chin (as evidenced by the fact that he's never been knocked down or knocked out in his career), Garcia's power will affect Peterson's ability to execute his attack... especially given that Peterson is prone to applying pressure to his opponents, which should set up spots for clean counterpunching from Garcia. This, combined with the fact that Peterson is a slow starter to begin with and the fact that Garcia has time and again stepped up big in high-profile fights, compels me to give the edge to Garcia. But given Peterson's solid foot movement and the fact that Garcia isn't an overly aggressive power puncher I think it's more likely Garcia wins the fight by decision rather than by TKO/KO.
If I was betting this fight, I'd take the bet on Garcia to win by decision but the odds on Peterson to win by decision (+480 on 5 Dimes) are so attractive that I'd strongly recommend placing a smaller amount on Peterson by decision as a hedge play. Would even consider Peterson by decision as the primary play, given that +480 is an excellent price for a fighter I'd grade as having a 35-40% chance to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Garcia by decision
[Recommended Hedge: Peterson by decision (+480)]
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