Pacquiao vs. Bradley II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Timothy Bradley (31-0-0-1, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 12, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -240, Bradley +220 (5 Dimes, 4/12/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $20 million, Bradley: $6 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao #7 ranked pound-for-pound (#3 ranked welterweight), Bradley #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight).
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Bradley: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #7 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. 
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December, 2012 fights vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Quick fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters like Bradley to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was an effective punch for him in the previous fight vs. Bradley. 
• By most accounts, Pacquiao won his first fight with Bradley convincingly. (Many gave Pacquiao as many as 10 or 11 rounds of the fight.) Pacquiao outlanded Bradley by over 100 punches in the previous fight (outlanding Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds) and landed at a much higher percentage even before seemingly easing up in the later rounds. Pacquiao has stated that he intends to be more aggressive vs. Bradley than in his previous fights (which he can afford to do because Bradley has limited power); if Pacquiao can replicate or surpass the success he had landing punches vs. Bradley with his increased aggression he will likely win this rematch convincingly.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? Vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won the first fight vs. Bradley convincingly. In his next fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed both Bradley and Marquez despite taking losses in both fights.
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.
• Crowd at the MGM Grand will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. This and the controversy from the previous fight vs. Bradley could influence the judges' scoring in favor of Pacquiao.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last three fights (including a disputed decision vs. the man he will be fighting tonight) and hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley but that fight was almost two years ago (June, 2012). Since then, Pacquiao has slipped while Bradley has improved and gained valuable experience in earning decisions vs. Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in the prime of his career and coming off of arguably the best performance of his career in his split decision vs. Marquez.
• While most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley, many also feel Bradley made adjustments and improved over the second half of the fight. Bradley largely knows what to expect out of Pacquiao now; will Bradley's adjustments carry over in the fight tonight and allow him to earn a clearer decision?
• Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed but Bradley has comparable hand speed and is arguably more mobile on his feet than Manny. 
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. There were spots in the first fight where Bradley used his jab effectively to back Pacquiao up in have him in a position where he couldn't fight as effectively. If Bradley is more effective with his jab and can get Pacquiao fighting off his back foot again, the fight will be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive wizard. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. 
• Pacquiao significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines and has a baby boy due at the end of the month. Is his heart still really in boxing? 

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has always found a way to win. Displayed tremendous heart and determination in pulling out recent victories vs. Manny Pacquiao, Ruslan Provodnikov, and Juan Manuel Marquez. Currently ranked the #3 fighter pound-for-pound in the sport, but is still hungry and feels he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao.  
• Although highly controversial, Bradley already beat Pacquiao in June 2012. Since then, Bradley has improved as a fighter, gaining experience with wins vs. heavy puncher Provodnikov and HOF counter puncher Marquez, while Pacquiao has arguably slipped in recent years. Pacquiao is 35 and a few years past his prime, while Bradley is currently in his prime and highly confident after his three recent high-profile victories.
• Bradley won his last fight vs. Pacquiao despite injuring both of his feet early in the fight (fracturing his left foot in the 2nd round and twisting his right ankle in the 4th per Bradley). One would expect an injury-free Bradley to look more impressive in the rematch.
• Technically savvy boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's tendencies during fights. Made adjustments and improved over the 2nd half of the first Pacquiao fight. Bradley is familiar with Pacquiao's tendencies after the first fight so one can expect there will be at least some improvements in the rematch vs. Pacquiao, who is not as adept at making adjustments to his opponents. 
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Pacquiao often relies on his hand and foot speed advantages to win fights but at this point in their careers, Bradley arguably has better foot speed and, while he doesn't have the power, has hand speed comparable to Pacquiao's.
• High volume puncher. In their first fight Bradley threw more punches than Pacquiao, who is known for being an aggressive, high-volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his recent fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his March 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career. 
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 7 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of his last fight.
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Most feel Bradley lost his first fight vs. Pacquiao by a wide margin. If the rematch resembles the first fight (in which Bradley did not hurt Pacquiao and landed significantly less punches), Pacquiao will likely win an easy decision.
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which should allow Pacquiao to take more chances and be more aggressive in the fight. Bradley has stated publicly that he will take chances and go for the KO vs. Pacquiao but fighting a more aggressive style in this fight may increase the likelihood he gets hurt or knocked out. 
• Bradley is an elusive, defensively gifted fighter but Pacquiao has clear hand speed and power advantages that Bradley won't be able to evade for the full 12 rounds, especially since Pacquiao has the foot speed to catch up to Bradley.
• The MGM Grand crowd will be pro-Pacquiao, and there is a sentiment among many in boxing that Pacquiao got robbed in the first fight, so judges may be more inclined to score close rounds in Pacquiao's favor.

Summary

Tough fight to predict. In my opinion, this is a close 55/45 fight that could go either way, but I'd slightly favor Manny Pacquiao. On the one hand Pacquiao, despite losing the last fight vs. Bradley, did statistically dominate the first fight. Pacquiao outlanded Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds, landed almost 100 more punches, landed the cleaner, more powerful punches, and landed at a much higher percentage than Bradley did. Most felt Manny won the first fight convincingly. Manny will make it a point to be more aggressive in this rematch and, despite some slippage at 35 years old, still has the clear hand speed and power advantage to dominate Bradley over 12 rounds. Bradley is an elusive tactician with great counter punching abilities but does not have the power (that Marquez had in his fights with Pacquiao) to make Manny think twice about coming forward and staying aggressive. Pacquiao is determined to redeem himself from the controversial split decision loss and set-up a possible future opportunity to avenge his loss vs. Marquez.

On the other hand, it's been almost two years since Pacquiao/Bradley I. Since then Pacquiao has suffered a KO loss and had what many felt was an unimpressive victory vs. Brandon Rios, while Bradley won a slugfest with Ruslan Provodnikov (a fight which was named the 2013 Fight of the Year by nearly every boxing outlet) and is coming off arguably the best fight of his career in outboxing Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in his prime, confident, and fighting as well as he's ever fought in his career while Pacquiao is aging and is not quite the fighter he was a few years ago. Bradley claims he injured both feet early in the last fight so one would expect he should look more impressive in the rematch. Bradley also come on late in the last fight and has a better idea of what to expect in this fight, so one would also expect he'll have adjustments to neutralize Pacquiao's speed and power advantages. As determined as Pacquiao will be to avenge his loss, Bradley will likely be even more determined to redeem and prove himself as most felt he lost the fight and robbed Pacquiao of a clear decision.

There are solid reasons why either fighter could win but I think the key to this fight, like the last fight, is that Pacquiao at the end of the day still has the clear hand speed and power advantage, strengths Bradley won't be able to mitigate for the full 12 rounds with foot speed (because Manny is still fast enough to catch him) or counter punching (because Bradley doesn't have the power to keep Manny honest). Bradley is by nature a high volume fighter and will for some stretches of the fight be willing to stand in and exchange with Pacquiao. Bradley clearly has a chip on his shoulder and still feels he has something to prove so I see him fighting in this fight (at least in stretches) trying to exchange punches like he did vs. Provodnikov rather than jabbing and using movement like he did vs. Marquez. Fighting like he fought vs. Provodnikov will likely be to Bradley's detriment as it will allow Pacquiao to better exploit his speed and power advantages.  

With this said, Pacquiao is not quite as strong or as fast as he was a couple of years ago. If Bradley can make effective use of the jab (which he did brilliantly vs. Marquez and had some success with vs. Pacquiao) to keep Pacquiao on his back foot and use his feet to either stay out of range (as he did in the Marquez fight) or crowd Pacquiao on the inside (where Pacquiao's power is not as effective), Bradley may be able to outwork Pacquiao and pull off the decision. The course of this fight depends largely on 1) how Bradley approaches this fight and how he plans to mitigate Pacquiao's aggressiveness and 2) how much power and speed Pacquiao truly has left in the tank.

Not knowing for sure how Bradley will approach this fight (i.e., whether he chooses to exchange or chooses to jab and stay mobile), I think Pacquiao's clear speed and power advantages get him the victory in this matchup a slight majority of the time (between say 55-60% of the time). I believe Pacquiao will probably win this fight. However, I do believe with his technical savvy and high volume workrate that Bradley is enough of a live underdog to make a +220 wager on Bradley the best bet to make.

Prediction: Pacquiao by decision

Best Bet: Bradley to win (+220)