Hopkins vs. Murat: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (53-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Karo Murat (25-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: October 26, 2013
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Light Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Hopkins -840, Murat +660 (5 Dimes, 10/26/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins #2 ranked light heavyweight, Murat #6 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Murat: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• One of the great middleweight boxers of all time. Still a master class technician at age 48. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ. Adept at making adjustments during the fight. Great all around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Especially adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down and hands high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands.
• At 6'1", has height advantage over the 5'10" Murat. Also has a 5" reach advantage. 
• 48 years old (2.5 months from turning 49) but still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current IBF light heavyweight champion of the world and recently beaten the likes of Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior) and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior), two of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world.
• Hopkins is the more experienced, more skilled fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. Murat has never won (or even fought for) a major world title belt.
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 18th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 48 years old, 18 years older than Murat. Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active. Often slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Murat

• Fundamentally sound counter puncher with good defense. Employs classic European high guard defense (think Arthur Abraham and Winky Wright) and patiently waits for opportunities to counter. Has good boxing IQ.
• Is a "come forward" boxer who is very good at using his feet to cut the ring off and walk his opponents down. Punches well to the body and, despite his patience, has good punch output.  
• Has relatively quick hands and throws short punches well, which may help against an excellent inside fighter like Hopkins.
• Only loss was to Nathan Cleverly, a solid fighter who is currently ranked the #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world.
• Is 18 years younger than Hopkins. If Hopkins shows signs of slowing down, Murat may be able to outwork and wear him down.
• Murat has an experienced trainer in Ulli Wegner who has trained other top German fighters such as Arthur Abraham and Marco Huck.

Negatives for Murat

• At the end of the day is a B-level/2nd-tier fighter who isn't nearly as skilled or experienced as Hopkins.
• Murat hasn't fought a professional fight in over a year (last fight: June, 2012). Murat will be fighting in the United States for the first time in front of a hostile, pro-Hopkins crowd.
• Hopkins is taller than Murat (6'1" vs. 5'10") and has a 5" reach advantage. Murat has had trouble in the past vs. taller, longer fighters (e.g., Nathan Cleverly).
• Cuts off ring well, but is not a good finisher and does not punch with a lot of power. Will often stick with high guard posture and passive defense at times when it may be preferable to be more aggressive.

Prefight Summary

This should be an easy fight for Hopkins. Hopkins is 48 years old, but has showed no signs of slowing down in recent years. Hopkins still has elite technique and defensive skills which should be more than enough to outpoint Murat, who is a good fighter but is a couple levels below Hopkins skill-wise. Murat is fighting outside of Europe for the first time in his career and may be rusty as he hasn't fought in well over a year. (Murat's last fight was in June 2012 vs. Sandro Siproshvili, a European journeyman who's lost 11 of his last 15 fights.) 

Aside from his advantages in skill and experience, Hopkins has physical advantages in height and reach which will be very difficult for Murat to overcome. (Murat has struggled in the past vs. skilled taller fighters with a reach advantage.) Even if Murat can overcome Hopkins' length and get into an inside brawl he faces a very daunting task as Hopkins is one of the best, if not the best, inside fighter of his generation. Murat does not have KO power so he likely won't win with a lucky punch; Murat's only chance to win is if Hopkins shows his age (which is highly possible at 48 years old) and Murat is able to take advantage by outworking Hopkins and beating him to the punch on the inside.

But the bottom line on this fight is Hopkins is the more experienced fighter with superior skills and higher boxing IQ, and is fighting an hour from his hometown in front of a pro-Hopkins crowd. It would take an epic meltdown from Hopkins to blow this fight. Murat's patient, deliberate style should be easy for Hopkins to figure out and break down as the fight progresses; expect Hopkins to win by a wide unanimous decision.

Prediction: Hopkins by decision