Fight: Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) vs. Vanes Martirosyan (36-3-1, 21 KOs)
Location: StubHub Center, Carson, California
Date: May 5, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles (Golovkin is also the IBF World middleweight champion but the IBF declined to sanction this fight.)
TV: HBO
Purses: Golovkin: $1 million, Martirosyan: $225,000
Line: Golovkin -2550, Martirosyan +1900 (5 Dimes, 5/4/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Martirosyan: Not ranked
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Martirosyan: Orthodox
Why you should watch this fight
Gennady Golovkin was supposed to fight Mexican boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez this Saturday in Las Vegas in a rematch of their September fight (that ended in a highly entertaining, but controversial draw that most observers felt Golovkin won), but the fight was canceled after Canelo failed two drug tests in the leadup to the fight.
Despite the draw from the Canelo fight (the first blemish on Golovkin's previously perfect boxing record), Golovkin is still undefeated and still ranked by many experts - including Ring Magazine - as the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. Golovkin is still the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world (boasting an impressive 87% KO percentage - the highest KO% in middleweight history) and still probably the most feared power puncher in the sport.
But Golovkin hasn't looked quite as invincible in recent fights vs. A-level fighters as he did in his prime vs. weaker competition. Controversy or not, Golovkin managed only a draw in his most recent fight vs. Canelo and eked out a close unanimous decision victory in his fight preceding the Canelo fight last March vs. Danny Jacobs - a fight that some observers felt he lost. (I was at this fight and - despite betting on Golovkin to win - scored it 114-113 for Jacobs.) The fights vs. both Canelo and Jacobs were somewhat surprising, much closer-than-expected results after Golovkin had won his 23 fights prior to those fights all by TKO or KO.
The fact of the matter is, Golovkin is 36-years old and past his prime, with some feeling he's (noticeably) slowed in recent years in terms of foot speed, and doesn't have quite the power he had in his prime. Saturday's fight vs. an underrated, highly skilled fighter in Vanes Martirosyan is a chance for Golovkin to prove he hasn't regressed even further after an 8-month layoff (the 2nd longest layoff of his career) and a chance to gauge whether he should still be rated the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport over the likes of rising stars such as Terence Crawford and Vasyl Lomachenko.
Martirosyan is moving up in weight from the junior middleweight (154 lb) division to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career (after a two-year layoff from the sport) and is fighting on less than three weeks notice to fight arguably the #1 boxer in the world.
But Martirosyan poses an intriguing challenge for Golovkin. Martirosyan has 3 losses in his career, but those were all close, disputed decision losses to A-level fighters in Erislandy Lara, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. (Andrade and Charlo are still undefeated and considered among the best in the sport pound-for-pound.)
Martirosyan has proven he has the ability to box with anyone. He's adept at fighting from distance and moves extremely well; his tricky, sometimes awkward movement combined with excellent stamina makes it difficult for anyone - even an elite power puncher like Golovkin - to land fight-stopping punches against him. (In 40 professional fights, Martirosyan has never even come close to being stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career - a flash knockdown in the 9th round of his unanimous decision victory vs. Kasim Ouma in 2010.)
Despite the public criticism of this matchup, Martirosyan is arguably one of the top four or five opponents Golovkin has faced (in terms of talent and skill) and is a solid enough boxer to be an effective gauge as to where a 36-year-old Golovkin is at in his career after two fights in which he fought well, but showed signs of slippage.
If Martirosyan - a massive 20-1 underdog in this matchup - can win this fight it would obviously be (by far) the biggest win of his career, not to mention be the biggest upset in boxing in recent memory. An upset here would turn the middleweight division - which Golovkin has dominated for most of the last decade - on its heels.
But if Golovkin looks impressive and dominates Martirosyan as expected, it further wets the appetite for a possible Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in September, a rematch of what was considered by many a classic and one of the best fights of 2017.
Despite the draw from the Canelo fight (the first blemish on Golovkin's previously perfect boxing record), Golovkin is still undefeated and still ranked by many experts - including Ring Magazine - as the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. Golovkin is still the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world (boasting an impressive 87% KO percentage - the highest KO% in middleweight history) and still probably the most feared power puncher in the sport.
But Golovkin hasn't looked quite as invincible in recent fights vs. A-level fighters as he did in his prime vs. weaker competition. Controversy or not, Golovkin managed only a draw in his most recent fight vs. Canelo and eked out a close unanimous decision victory in his fight preceding the Canelo fight last March vs. Danny Jacobs - a fight that some observers felt he lost. (I was at this fight and - despite betting on Golovkin to win - scored it 114-113 for Jacobs.) The fights vs. both Canelo and Jacobs were somewhat surprising, much closer-than-expected results after Golovkin had won his 23 fights prior to those fights all by TKO or KO.
The fact of the matter is, Golovkin is 36-years old and past his prime, with some feeling he's (noticeably) slowed in recent years in terms of foot speed, and doesn't have quite the power he had in his prime. Saturday's fight vs. an underrated, highly skilled fighter in Vanes Martirosyan is a chance for Golovkin to prove he hasn't regressed even further after an 8-month layoff (the 2nd longest layoff of his career) and a chance to gauge whether he should still be rated the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport over the likes of rising stars such as Terence Crawford and Vasyl Lomachenko.
Martirosyan is moving up in weight from the junior middleweight (154 lb) division to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career (after a two-year layoff from the sport) and is fighting on less than three weeks notice to fight arguably the #1 boxer in the world.
But Martirosyan poses an intriguing challenge for Golovkin. Martirosyan has 3 losses in his career, but those were all close, disputed decision losses to A-level fighters in Erislandy Lara, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. (Andrade and Charlo are still undefeated and considered among the best in the sport pound-for-pound.)
Martirosyan has proven he has the ability to box with anyone. He's adept at fighting from distance and moves extremely well; his tricky, sometimes awkward movement combined with excellent stamina makes it difficult for anyone - even an elite power puncher like Golovkin - to land fight-stopping punches against him. (In 40 professional fights, Martirosyan has never even come close to being stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career - a flash knockdown in the 9th round of his unanimous decision victory vs. Kasim Ouma in 2010.)
Despite the public criticism of this matchup, Martirosyan is arguably one of the top four or five opponents Golovkin has faced (in terms of talent and skill) and is a solid enough boxer to be an effective gauge as to where a 36-year-old Golovkin is at in his career after two fights in which he fought well, but showed signs of slippage.
If Martirosyan - a massive 20-1 underdog in this matchup - can win this fight it would obviously be (by far) the biggest win of his career, not to mention be the biggest upset in boxing in recent memory. An upset here would turn the middleweight division - which Golovkin has dominated for most of the last decade - on its heels.
But if Golovkin looks impressive and dominates Martirosyan as expected, it further wets the appetite for a possible Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in September, a rematch of what was considered by many a classic and one of the best fights of 2017.
Prefight Analysis
I actually wouldn't be surprised if Martirosyan is competitive in this fight. Martirosyan has never been decisively beaten in his career and in 2 out of this 3 career losses (each of which came vs. A-level fighters), you could make a strong argument that Martirosyan won the fight. There's been criticism of the Golovkin/Martirosyan matchup, but Vanes is a top-level fighter in his own right who's difficult to look good against and could prove to be a tougher-than-expected test for Golovkin.
Martirosyan moves well and has slightly better hand and foot speed than Golovkin. While far from a defensive wizard, Martirosyan has enough skill and awkward elusiveness to evade Golovkin's power punching and make this a competitive fight for several rounds. Martirosyan is moving up in weight and hasn't fought in nearly two years but in terms of pure skill, I'd rate Martirosyan just below Canelo, Jacobs, and Kell Brook as probably the 4th-best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career. I would also rate Martirosyan's ability to box on the move as comparable and in some ways superior to Jacobs, who employed effective movement to give Golovkin the toughest fight of his career.
But Martirosyan is nearly a 20-1 underdog in this matchup for a reason. You can't escape the fact that
Vanes will be making his middleweight debut on less than 3 weeks notice after a 2-year layoff vs. arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and arguably the #1 middleweight fighter of this generation in Golovkin. Martirosyan has never faced a fighter with power anything close to Golovkin's and I think Vanes will lose some of his elusiveness and crafty foot movement (which he would rely on to evade that power) at the higher weight. And although Martirosyan is a fighter who moves well, he's a scrappy fighter at heart who's shown in previous fights a willingness to stay in the pocket and trade punches from close distance - at trait which will likely work against him if he decides to trade vs. a historically great power puncher like Golovkin.
Note that Golovkin will be able to stay aggressive and take more risks vs. Martirosyan - a natural 154-lber who doesn't have the knockout power of a Canelo or Jacobs, both of whom Golovkin had to at times box cautiously against (as respect to their power).
Skillwise, I think Golovkin and Martirosyan are comparable but there will be a clear advantage in terms of size, power, and experience at middleweight for Golovkin in this matchup. Martirosyan is a game fighter who I think is underrated by most. But if you combine the size and power advantages here with the ring rust resulting from Vanes having been out of the ring for nearly two years, I think we'll see a fairly easy stoppage victory for Golovkin in the middle rounds - perhaps earlier. Again, Martirosyan has an awkward style that's difficult to look good against, but - with all factors considered - if Golovkin doesn't look good here I think it will be a bit of a confirmation that he's slipped a bit and perhaps should no longer be considered the best boxer in the world over the likes of Lomachenko or Crawford.
In any case I'll be at the fight at StubHub Saturday night and am looking forward to seeing how this fight unfolds!
Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO
Recommended bet(s):
1) Golovkin to win in rounds 1-4 (.5 unit)
2) Golovkin to win in rounds 5-8 (.5 unit)
1) Golovkin to win in rounds 1-4 (.5 unit)
2) Golovkin to win in rounds 5-8 (.5 unit)