Golovkin vs. Jacobs: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (32-1, 29 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: March 18, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -825, Jacobs +650 (5 Dimes, 3/17/17)
Purse: Golovkin: $2.5 million, Jacobs: $1.75 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch (other notable fights: Lemieux vs. Stevens, Froch vs. Groves I, Golovkin vs. Proksa)

Why you should watch this fight

This is a fight between the two best middleweight boxers in the world - who also happen to be two of the best knockout artists in the sport - that is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed matchup. Saturday night will be a middleweight title unification bout between the undefeated WBA (Super), WBC, and IBF middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin - arguably the top fighter in boxing pound-for-pound - vs. WBA (Regular) middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs - a 32-1 fighter who hasn't lost a fight in over 6.5 years and is by far Golovkin's toughest middleweight opponent to date.

The winner of this fight will be the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and will be well on his way to becoming the first undisputed middleweight champion in over a decade (Jermain Taylor, 2006), pending a possible fight with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders later this year.

Golovkin has won 33 out of his 36 professional fights - including his last 23(!) fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 92%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. But Jacobs is a top-level boxer who has elite punching power in his own right, having won 29 out of his 33 professional fights - including his last 12 fights - by stoppage for a very impressive KO% of 88%. Jacobs - who just five years ago survived a rare form of bone cancer (which at one point left him unable to walk) to win a middleweight title in 2014 - will be fighting in his hometown of New York City. where he is 9-0 as a fighter (with all 9 of those victories coming via early-round stoppage).

Given the combination of world-class boxing skills and elite knockout power possessed by both fighters, this should be an electric one while it lasts.

The undercard of this fight features undefeated, current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound boxer Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez, a four-weight division champion who will be defending his super flyweight championship vs. Thai fighter Wisaksil Wangek.

Prefight Analysis

Many would consider Danny Jacobs to be a live underdog in this fight, especially given the sizable (+650) odds on him to upset Golovkin. He's won 12 straight fights - all by TKO/KO - and has looked impressive in most of those fights. He's a big middleweight with a decent size advantage over Gennady. Jacobs has faster hands and faster feet than Golovkin, and is one of the very few middleweights out there with the punching power to stop him. Jacobs is a versatile fighter with the skills to fight Golovkin from close range - a tactic which may be necessary to mitigate Golovkin's ability to generate punching power from distance - but also has the skills to box on his feet. Given Jacob's 3" reach advantage in this matchup, he may have some success boxing Golovkin from distance.

Jacobs is (perhaps by far) Golovkin's toughest opponent to date so you can't completely write him off, especially given that he will be fighting in front of a lot of friendly supporters in his hometown of New York City and the fact that, in life, he has defeated a much tougher opponent than Golovkin in overcoming a rare form of bone cancer that was expected to end his boxing career (and possibly his ability to walk or even his life).

But despite Jacob's advantages, particularly in size and speed, I think his deficit of a questionable chin vs. Golovkin's potentially all-time great punching power will be too much for even a fighter nicknamed the "Miracle Man" to overcome. Jacob's only loss of his professional career came via early-round stoppage vs. Dmitry Pirog, another Soviet boxer who - like Golovkin will attempt to do Saturday night - was able to effectively cut off the ring early and apply pressure vs. a mostly retreating Jacobs (though Jacobs was able to win arguably win three out of the first four rounds on the scorecards). Pirog, now a politician in Russia (his career ended early due to a debilitating back injury), was a highly talented, potentially elite boxer but did not have the skills or punching power of Golovkin.

Jacobs was also knocked down in the first round of his August 2015 fight vs. Sergio Mora, a notoriously feather-fisted puncher who has only 9 wins by TKO/KO in 35 career fights (for a KO% of 26%).

The knockdowns vs. Pirog and Mora don't necessarily prove that Jacobs is weak-chinned, but in assessing an elite pound-for-pound fighter in Golovkin - who has a middleweight-record 92% of his wins (including the last 23 wins) coming via TKO/KO - vs. a skilled but somewhat predictable fighter in Jacobs who has a questionable chin, you'd have to (strongly) favor Golovkin's proven power.

Jacobs has elite power of his own to be sure, but Golovkin has proven to have one of the best - if not the best - chins in boxing, having never been knocked down or knocked out in 386(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Golovkin has already very easily handled a fighter with comparable power to Jacobs (in David Lemieux) and also already easily handled a much more skilled fighter than Jacobs (in his last fight vs. Kell Brook, a fighter many would rate as top 10-15 pound-for-pound). Golovkin has also fought faster, more elusive fighters than Jacobs (see Willie Monroe Jr. as an example), yet had no problems cutting off the ring and catching up to them en route early-round TKO/KO victories.

Golovkin's combination of pressure and skill is special and unmatched in the boxing game right now. There will be quite a few spots in this fight where Golovkin and Jacobs trade punches -  you have to favor Golovkin's impressive power (and ability to generate that power from unpredictable angles) vs. Jacob's questionable chin over Jacob's also elite, if not somewhat straightforward, power vs. Golovkin's seemingly impeccable chin. Only 2 of Golovkin's 33 knockout victims have lasted past 8 rounds: Martin Murray - who had never been knocked down or knocked out in a fight prior to getting knocked down 3 times and stopped in the 11th round in his February 2015 fight vs. Golovkin - and  Kassim Ouma, who was known for having a great chin in his prime. (Ouma was stopped in the 10th round of a close, competitive fight with Golovkin back in June 2011.)

Given this, I think that the best bet on this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO in the early to mid rounds. But - given that Golovkin has never faced a fighter with Jacob's combination of skill and power and, given the fact that Jacobs is one of the few fighters Golovkin has fought that has a clear size advantage over him, I think it's also worth "hedging" this bet to an extent with a bet on the fight to last under 7.5 rounds. Golovkin will likely respect Jacob's power early (as he did vs. Lemieux) and won't necessarily apply full pressure until he establishes a read on Jacobs; this period of the fight would be Jacob's best chance to jump on Golovkin and land that punch (or combination of punches) that stops Golovkin early (which IMO may be the only way he can win this fight). Note that this "hedge" also wins if Golovkin stops Jacobs early.

I will be betting on Golovkin to win the fight in the first 6 rounds (at approximately +120 odds) but an alternate bet to very strongly consider is to instead bet Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 as well as Golovkin to win in rounds 7-9. This bet will return roughly 15% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6, and will return roughly 35% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9. The downside to this alternative bet is it doesn't cover Golovkin winning within the first 3 rounds, though I suspect Golovkin will fight more cautiously during that period of the fight anyway as he develops his read on Jacobs. (This alternative does, however, cover some of the later rounds of the fight in case the fight lasts a bit longer than expected.)

The combination bet of Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 and 7-9 may actually be the slightly more prudent bet given Golovkin's anticipated early round strategy, but I'm going with Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds for simplicity and because I have serious doubts whether Jacob's chin can hold up even through the first three rounds.

In any case, I'll be in New York City for this fight and am looking forward to an electric, post-St. Patrick's Day fight crowd as well as an overall fantastic card, which includes top pound-for-pound fighter Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez. Good luck!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin wins in rounds 1-6 (.5 unit)
[or alternative combination bet of Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6 (.25 unit) and Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9 (.25 unit)]
2) Golovkin/Jacobs U 7.5 rounds (.5 unit)

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Thurman vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (27-0, 22 KOs) vs. Danny Garcia (33-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 4, 2017
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: CBS
Line: Thurman -220, Garcia +200 (5 Dimes, 3/4/17)
Purse: Thurman: $2 million, Garcia: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #2 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Garcia: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

This is a key matchup in what right now is probably the most stacked weight class division in boxing. Thurman vs. Garcia will be just the 3rd fight in boxing history to match two undefeated welterweights in a unification title fight. (The previous matchup being the 1999 superfight vs. undefeated welterweight champions Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad.)

Thurman vs. Garcia will also be just the 2nd fight in nearly 40 years to air on CBS in primetime - the 1st fight being Thurman's victory last June vs. Shawn Porter in a classic that was widely considered a fight of the year candidate for 2016.

Prior to these two fights, the last fight to air on CBS in primetime was Leon Spinks'  split-decision upset victory vs. Muhammad Ali, the 1978 Ring Magazine Fight of the Year that gave Ali only the 3rd loss of his career and 1st loss since losing to Ken Norton nearly five years prior.

The winner of this fight will stand alongside Manny Pacquiao as arguably the top welterweight in boxing and - given Floyd Mayweather's recent retirement as well as Pacquiao's gradual but inevitable transition from boxer to full-time Philippine politician - is positioned to become one of the prominent faces of the division for years to come.

Along with the Pacquiao vs. Amir Khan and Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence fights tentatively scheduled for later this spring, Thurman vs. Garcia will go a long way towards clarifying who the top fighter is in what is probably the most talent-laden division in the sport.

Why Keith Thurman will win

Thurman is an undefeated fighter who has been the WBA welterweight champion since 2013. He's an aggressive boxer-puncher with good foot movement and one punch KO power in both hands. (Thurman has won 22 of his 27 pro fights by TKO/KO for an impressive KO% of 79%) At 28 years old, Thurman is in his prime and is highly confident coming off what was by far the best win of his career in last year's unanimous decision victory over top welterweight Shawn Porter.

 Aside from his natural power and athleticism, Thurman is a very thoughtful, highly intelligent boxer
who has noticeable advantages in size, speed, and mobility over Garcia. Thurman had a lot of success using foot movement to stay out of range vs. the herky-jerky ambush style of Porter; one would expect he will have even more success evading the power of the relatively flat-footed, more predictable Garcia.

Thurman has much more experience at welterweight than Garcia - he has fought essentially his entire career at 147 lbs or higher, while this will only be Garica's 4th fight at welterweight. Thurman at this point is fairly battle-tested at 147 with experience vs. some good power punchers in the division, while Garcia's toughest tests at 147 have been vs. Robert Guerrero and Paulie Malignaggi - both of whom are well past their prime. Although Garcia has two TKO victories in his three fights at welterweight, it's still unclear how well his proven power at 140 lbs will carry up vs. the top welterweights at 147; Thurman appears to be the naturally stronger fighter with the superior punching power in this matchup.

Like Thurman, Garcia is also undefeated but two of his recent victories (vs. Lamont Peterson and Mauricio Herrera - neither of whom are as highly regarded as Thurman) have been controversial, majority decision victories that many felt he lost. Garcia is a skilled, well-rounded fighter but has not proven to be an elite technician and is prone to being outboxed in large stretches of fights - including the later rounds of his fights vs. Peterson and Herrera, the early rounds of his 1st fight vs. a past prime Erik Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and even his split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane back in 2010 (a fight some felt Theophane won).

As proven in some of the fights noted above, boxers with solid jabs and good movement can frustrate Garcia's typically slow and flat-footed counterpunching style. If Thurman can establish his jab and use movement to evade Garcia's dangerous counterpunching ability, it will be extremely difficult for Garcia to win a 12 round decision given Thurman's seemingly superior size, speed, punching power, and boxing IQ - not to mention his advantage in experience at 147 lbs.

As a final point, it's worth noting that many seem to be overlooking the fact that Thurman's trainer is two-time Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) trainer of the year Dan Birmingham - a world class trainer who has trained the likes of former undisputed light middleweight champion Winky Wright and former Olympian and super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy. Birmingham and Thurman have known since early October that Garcia would be their next fight and have had a few months to game plan and prepare for the matchup.

Why Danny Garcia will win

Like Thurman, Garcia is also an undefeated fighter in his prime and has been a world champion in two different weight classes, unifying titles at junior welterweight (140 lbs) before moving up to win the vacant WBC welterweight championship vs. Robert Guerrero last year.

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated, two-division world champion and one of the best boxers in the world pound for pound. Garcia has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top world-class opponents such as Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, and Lucas Matthysse. Garcia was a +500 underdog in his 2012 title unification bout vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory and was as high as a +250 underdog vs. feared power puncher Matthysse, who he scored a knockdown against en route to a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory in the co-main event of the Mayweather/Canelo card in 2013. Garcia actually enters Saturday's fight as a smaller underdog (+200) than he was vs. either Khan or Matthysse.

Despite only having 19 KOs in 33 fights (57.6 KO%), Garcia's punching power is dangerous and very underrated. Garcia has knocked down 8 of his last 11 opponents over the past 5 years, knocking them down  a total of 11 times in that span. Garcia's knockdowns often come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch and is considered by many to be one of the best left hooks - if not the best left hook - in the sport.

Garcia is a very effective, savvy counter puncher with pretty good hand speed and very good timing on his punches; so if he can land the right counters vs. Thurman's at-times reckless attack (in particular to the body where Thurman was badly hurt and nearly took a knee in his July 2015 fight vs. Luis Collazo) then Thurman could be in for a much tougher night than expected. Thurman was solid defensively in his last fight vs. Porter but in the past has occasionally shown a lack of discipline defensively, dropping his hands in inopportune spots which has left him exposed to clean counter punching (most notably vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass).

Garcia has a reputation for having one of the best chins in boxing (having never been knocked down or knocked out in his professional career), so at times may be able to risk trading shots with Thurman when he's in range - a scenario where you'd likely have to favor Garcia's chin over Thurman's despite Thurman's probable advantage in punching power.  

This fight is taking place in New York City, where the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Garcia. Garcia is of Puerto Rican descent (both of his parents are from Puerto Rico) and New York City is well-known for its large Puerto Rican population, with nearly a quarter of Puerto Ricans (over 1.2 million) in the United States living in the New York City metropolitan area. Garcia himself is originally from Philadelphia, which is less than a two hour drive from New York City; he is expected to have a large contingent of hometown supporters in the crowd Saturday night for the biggest fight of his career to date.

Garcia is a seemingly unflappable fighter who has risen to the occasion every time he's entered the ring as an underdog, not only winning but winning decisively - most recently vs. Matthysse on a huge stage in Las Vegas in the co-main event of what at the time became the highest grossing pay-per-view fight in boxing history (Mayweather vs. Canelo) - so you can never count him out.

Prefight Analysis

I like Keith Thurman to win this fight - probably by clear decision but possibly even by late stoppage. Thurman in my opinion has too many advantages in this fight for Garcia to overcome - size, foot speed, experience at welterweight, punching power, and boxing IQ. Considering the total package of skills Thurman brings to the fight and Garcia's relative inexperience at welterweight, this might be by far the toughest opponent Garcia has faced in his career.  

Garcia is a very solid fighter who - at least on paper - has some legitimately impressive wins as an underdog. But in taking a closer look at some of his fights vs. top-level opponents how impressive were those really? Garcia was getting decisively outboxed by Amir Khan but was able to get an early round TKO/KO victory against a fighter many consider to have the weakest chin of any top-level boxer in the modern era of boxing. Earlier in his career, Khan suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. 9-1 underdog Breidis Prescott, who went on to lose 4 of his next 7 fights after upsetting Khan.


Lucas Matthysse was one of the most feared power punchers in the sport at the time Garcia beat him, but has since proven to be somewhat overrated. After fighing Garcia, Matthysse was in a (surprisingly) highly competitive, fight of the year candidate vs. a B-level journeyman in John Molina Jr. who has lost 3 of his last 5 fights since facing Matthysse. And Matthysse lost by KO in his most recent fight vs. Viktor Postol, a top-level fighter but not a fighter known for his punching power. (Postol has only won 12 of this 29 career fights - 41% - by TKO/KO). Note that Matthysse has also never won a full world title belt and, with the exception of a 3rd round TKO/KO victory vs. Lamont Peterson, has lost to every top-level fighter he has faced - most notably Devon Alexander and rvrn a past prime Zab Judah.  

After fighting Matthysse, Garcia fought 9-1 underdog Mauricio Herrera in his family's homeland of Puerto Rico. Most who watched the fight felt Herrera beat Garcia, including the majority of the Puerto Rican crowd who largely booed the majority decision score for Garcia.

The following year, Lamont Peterson outboxed and dominated Garcia in the 2nd half of their fight in a controversial majority-decision loss, but probably came in to the fight with the wrong game plan by waiting to long to become the aggressor.

All other notable opposition Garcia has fought in recent years - Robert Guerrero, Paulie Malignaggi, and Erik Morales - were well past their prime (aged 32, 34, and 35 respectively) and years removed from being world title belt holders at the time they fought Garcia.

Garcia is a flat-footed, relatively low-volume fighter; I think Thurman is smart and skilled enough to exploit this by boxing Garcia from distance and using enough reach as to where Garcia's counter punching will be largely ineffective. Garcia's chances lie - as they did in his upset victory vs. Khan - primarily in his ability to time Thurman and land big punches but I don't see Thurman allowing Garcia to throw enough counters within range to pose a serious threat; I expect Thurman to mostly either stay out of Garcia's punching range or stay close enough inside to use his size advantage to smother Garcia's punches.

Thurman has the quicker hands, superior jab, and better foot movement so should be able to control the pace of the fight while Garcia waits for opportunities to counter. If Thurman controls the pace as I expect, I don't see any outcome other than a 9-3/8-4 type decision for Thurman (or even a late stoppage if Garcia is unable to handle Thurman's combination of movement and power). I strongly favor Thurman - and his array of advantages over Garcia - in this matchup.

In terms of betting, taking Thurman to win at any odds -230 or better suffices; but given Garcia's excellent chin I think one should strongly consider placing 25-50% of the wager on this fight on Thurman by 12 round decision (currently at +130). Other than a lucky punch, I don't see Garcia - as skilled and underrated as I think he is - having the movement or punch output over 12 rounds to outbox a guy with the physical tools, savvy, and skill of Thurman,- who I think was in much tougher in his previous fight vs. Shawn Porter (and passed that test with flying colors).

Prediction: Thurman to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Thurman to win (.75 unit)
2) Thurman by 12 round decision (.25 unit)

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